Trump says he’ll be the first ‘crypto president’ but what will it mean for bitcoin?

On a call-in interview with Fox Business in 2021, the recently ousted US president Donald Trump was asked his opinion on bitcoin. The cryptocurrency was on a record-breaking run and on track to be the best-performing major asset of the year, with gains 10 times greater than that of gold.

“It just seems like a scam,” Trump said. “I don’t like it because it’s another currency competing against the dollar… The currency of this world should be the dollar and I don’t think we should have all of the bitcoins of the world out there.”

Less than three years later, Trump is now pitching himself as the “crypto president”, pledging to protect the 50 million people in the US who own cryptocurrency from “Elizabeth Warren and her goons”, while also ensuring that “all the remaining bitcoin [is] MADE IN THE USA!!!”

This sudden shift in stance appears to fit with both his nationalistic rhetoric and his implacable opposition to Democratic policies – but the move may also be opportunistic. In May, a widely shared survey revealed that just over a fifth of voters in crucial swing states consider cryptocurrency to be a deciding factor in who they vote for.

That same month, the Trump campaign announced that it would begin accepting donations in crypto, including bitcoin, dogecoin and ethereum – raising $3m to date. Trump and his team have also been meeting with industry figures, and on Tuesday made the biggest play yet by appointing a pro-crypto candidate as his running mate.

JD Vance is the first ever bitcoin holder, or “bitcoiner”, on the presidential ticket, owning somewhere between $136,000 and $390,000 worth of the cryptocurrency, according to his Senate financial disclosure reports.

He has also made several crypto-friendly moves during his 20 months as a senator, including the introduction of a bill that would protect cryptocurrency firms and exchanges from being cut off by traditional banks.

Crypto investors and traders already appear convinced by the promise of a Trump presidency. In the wake of the failed assassination attempt last weekend, the price of bitcoin surged nearly 10 per cent as bookmakers placed him as the overwhelming favourite to retake the White House in November’s election.

But despite Trump’s promises, leading figures within the crypto industry have warned voters against choosing political allegiances based on a candidate’s purported stance on cryptocurrency. In a lengthy blog post on Wednesday, ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin noted that there is a growing push within the crypto space to become politically active and support politicians and parties based almost entirely on their position towards cryptocurrency.

“I argue that making decisions in this way carries a high risk of going against the values that brought you into the crypto space in the first place,” he wrote. “If you see a ‘pro-crypto politician’ today, it’s worth it to explore their underlying values, and see which side they will prioritise if a conflict does arise.”

Buterin also noted that the majority of bills introduced by Western governments were “mostly reasonable” and that support had previously been signalled by figures that are now among the industry’s biggest detractors, like Vladimir Putin.

“If a politician is pro-crypto today, but they are the type of person that is either very power-seeking themselves, or willing to suck up to someone who is, then this is the direction that their crypto advocacy may look like 10 years from now,” he continued. “Politicians come to understand that all they need to get your support is to support ‘crypto’. It doesn’t matter if they also support banning encrypted messaging, if they are a power-seeking narcissist, or if they push for bills that make it even harder for your Chinese or Indian friend to attend the next crypto conference.”

Trump’s foray into the space may reach its pinnacle next week, when he attends the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. His keynote address at one of the world’s biggest crypto conferences is being billed by organisers as a “speech that will be heard around the world”. While Trump hopes it will solidify support from crypto-holding voters and galvanise big-spending industry donors – the exchange-owning Winklevoss twins have already donated millions to support his campaign – it may also expose his complete lack of knowledge on the subject.

Last month, Trump said he would stop “Joe Biden’s crusade to crush crypto”, but Biden’s administration has overseen one of the most successful periods in bitcoin’s history in terms of both price gains and mainstream acceptance.

Earlier this year, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first-ever bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds, driving billions of dollars worth of institutional investment towards the cryptocurrency.

Whether or not it proves to be a wedge issue in key states, it is the first presidential election in US history where one of the two main candidates has made it part of their campaign. Buterin may not have mentioned Trump by name in his blog post, but he did hint at a political figure that is known for erratic shifts in opinion and not actually following through with campaign promises.

This could equally refer to Trump’s VP pick Vance, who has previously described himself as a “flip flop flipper” for his tendency to change his mind. (In 2016 he described himself as a “never Trump guy”, while calling him a “moral disaster” and possibly “America’s Hitler”.)

For one issue voters, the Trump-Vance ticket may seem like the only one courting the crypto community. But history suggests that a vote for them is not necessarily a vote for bitcoin.