Where the Murrayfield battle will be won and lost

LINE-OUT

SCOTLAND: They will not want to tie the ball up at line-outs. I think they will work variations on full line-outs and I doubt that they will use their front jumper much. They will throw a bit longer - McKenzie's throwing is pretty good. They will work hard to get the ball off the top and into Redpath's hands. Even if they are not winning ball on full line- outs I do not expect them to use many short line-outs, because that would lead to cluttering up the midfield with England defenders.

ENGLAND: The key is going to be the Archer-Regan combination. Fascinating to see where Archer jumps, because he does so at two for Bristol, but Johnson is probably the best front jumper in the world. I think Richards has been brought back partly because England will want to get their hands on the ball, then drive the line-out. I think they may call occasional short line-outs, because Johnson is exceptionally good in this department. That would allow them to use Clarke and Dallaglio to run at the defence either as decoys or to smash into the Scottish midfield , thereby creating space either side of the breakdown, enabling them to employ Catt as an alternative stand-off.

RUCK AND MAUL

SCOTLAND: They will try to play an up-tempo game with some rapid-fire running and rucking, trying to probe for gaps in the area between 15 and 20 metres from the first phase. Defensively, this is going to be a key area for Grayson and Carling to slow ball down. But quick Scottish ruck ball here will allow Redpath and Townsend to dictate play. The Scots can quickly build momentum, carrying the ball forward in quick bursts. The Scots don't maul as well as they ruck, where they feel more comfortable and are more effective; even their backs are very good ruckers.

ENGLAND: Getting the ball away and into loose play is probably playing more to Scottish strengths so they will want to get their hands on the ball and keep it off the ground, where of course Richards is at his most formidable. However, England's best bet will possibly be to combine ruck and maul - something I don't think Scotland can do - as this will enable them to keep changing the pace and area of the game; slow, quick; close in, wide out.

HALF-BACKS

SCOTLAND: They are the key to the team performance. They have been decisive, incisive and inventive all season under pressure. Redpath's service makes Townsend play flat, close to the opposition, and he enjoys this. Redpath has other strengths; he kicks exceptionally well and is very good at linking, a clever little runner who can put his big forwards across the gain line. Townsend is full of running ideas; a very imaginative stand-off, he is good at bringing others into the game on the open side, but he uses the blind side well too. He has a very positive attitude. He is always looking to do the unexpected. But I think the pair will have a fair amount of tackling to do. I don't think they have been stretched in that area yet.

ENGLAND: Dawson strikes me as being Redpath 12-18 months ago. A similar sort of player in many ways, but given a free rein he is a player who has all the skills. It will be interesting to see how much freedom he is given to make decisions today. Defensively, he has to be more aggressive and more positive and try to disrupt Scotland's back-row/half-back link. His service is pretty good, sharp. It is to be hoped Grayson has had his bad game. He made his reputation as a kicking stand-off and my impression is that he is still learning the running game. Unfortunately he is learning it in Division Two. He will need help from the man outside him - Carling, who has tasted failure once before at Murrayfield. Grayson must not be left in limbo, wondering what sort of game England want him to play.

BACK ROW

SCOTLAND: They have found a good balance. A ball-winning traditional open side in Smith, ideally suited to their game; a runner, tackler and grafter at No 8 in Peters, a good rucking foil for Smith; and of course they have their talisman captain at No 6 Wainwright, a strong tackling, powerful running, hard driving blind side. Their ability to reach and win ball quickly after the first phase has been a telling contributor to the performance of their half-backs this season. By winning ball they sustain the front five by setting targets for them to get to. What does interest me is how they will defend if England play it tight and slow things down, because then Smith will find it very difficult to get into the game.

ENGLAND: This has changed for the fifth time in as many matches and is the fourth different combination. I see England's back row in a two plus one combination i.e. two ball-winning players, either Dallaglio and Richards, or Clarke and Richards, and either Clarke or Dallaglio running off Dawson and Grayson to hit into the Scottish half-backs. And by attacking close in this area it allows their front five to get in more quickly to the next phase. Clarke, at No 6, has the opportunity not to get involved at the first breakdown, and I think if he were to play off the shoulder of Guscott in broken play it could be startlingly dynamic and effective.

SCRUM

SCOTLAND: This is not regarded as a strength. They looked a wee bit creaky in the Wales game and I do not think they will be searching for a game involving a great deal of scrummaging. From a tactical point of view what they will be aiming to do on their own put-in is to get the ball as quickly as possible back to the No 8 and then away and out to the half-backs.

ENGLAND: This is a new scrummaging unit, but if it comes together then I think they will be happy to drive as many scrums as they feel comfortable with and I think some back-row moves will involve Richards holding the ball up to allow the forwards to regroup around him and then they will try to drive it and spin it off down the field. The set-piece performance of the front five is going to be crucial.

RUNNING/KICKING

SCOTLAND: We can expect to see a lot of box kicks from Redpath and some teasing ones from Townsend. Townsend will also probably have a fairly shrewd idea of what Grayson's defensive capabilities are, so he will know which runners to use in that area as they have been successful here in the past three games. They do not have what I would call the fluency of a traditional threequarter line, but they have very strong and abrasive runners, who run very good angles off Townsend and also are good ball winners. The nature of the game they play is that they react well. If a ball pops out unexpectedly you can guarantee that the likes of Dods, Joiner or Shepherd will counter-attack. They are all always on the look- out for half-chances. Defensively, they are more than sound in the centre, not quite so assured wider out.

ENGLAND: I suspect Grayson will probably kick more than run the ball, certainly earlier on to help the front-five settle and go forward, since it is vital that they get moved backwards and sideways on the pitch as little as possible; I think Dawson will kick into the box and Grayson into the area some 15 or 20 metres inside the touchlines. But I hope the opportunity presents itself - and England take it - to use the likes of Sleightholme, Guscott, Catt and Underwood, whose combined pace is devastating wide out, where Scotland may just prove to be vulnerable.

Carling and Guscott showed a willingness, given early ball, to run at the Welsh midfield. Guscott has always been an electrifying runner, just give him five yards in which to run at the opposition and he can very easily unsettle a defence. Carling has always been very good in the past at running good angles against a drift defence, and he needs to do this again at Murrayfield; but both need early ball.

OVERALL

SCOTLAND: Scotland have a club side mentality because of the way their season has been organised, spending every weekend together between internationals. They have also played the same way in all three previous championship matches and they know precisely what their roles are. Generally, because of their preference for a rucking game, they will attack some 15 metres wide of first phase.

The point at issue is, can they sustain their style of play when there is a Triple Crown and a Grand Slam at stake - at Murrayfield? A great deal will be down to Redpath and Townsend to play it as they see it. It will require a massive collective and courageous effort - physically and mentally - to play as they have been doing; and if one player freezes then the whole thing could start to fall apart. Overall their game plan will be flexible, they will use space as it occurs in front of them and just go. In dramatic terms they are the improvisers.

ENGLAND: They will want to get Archer and Richards into the game as quickly as possible and I suspect early on they will be looking for scrums and line-outs to get those departments working; this will also help to tire out the Scottish front five.

They will want to attack between five and 10 metres wide of first phase and use their big men to hit the half-backs, making them do as much tackling as possible. So they will employ driving mauls and penetrative back-row moves and try to stop Scotland's back row ranging about the field. England need to get the balance right between kicking and ball in hand, for kicking often relinquishes control and in rugby league they say the team which controls the ball, controls the game. Given the importance of the occasion I suspect England will play much tighter and closer. Overall, the England game plan will be more rigid. They will try to create space first and then use it. In dramatic terms, perhaps, this is method acting.

VERDICT:

It will be a close game. I cannot see either side running away with it. But if both sides play to form then England will win.