UFC Fight Night preview: Rafael dos Anjos out to hold off challenge from rising star Tony Ferguson

This weekend in Mexico City, the former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos will look to hold ground against the rising tide with his number two ranking being threatened by the man hot on his heels Tony ‘El Cucuy’ Ferguson. Riding an eight-fight win streak, Ferguson is sitting at number three and getting restless. All he needs is one last big name in his win column and he can rightfully call for a title shot. Aside from the McGregor vs Alvarez fight this is the most important fight in the division. The other two players in this title picture are on the UFC 205 undercard next weekend. Number one contender Khabib Nurmagomedov and number six ranked Michael Johnson, who also happens to be the last man to defeat Tony Ferguson.

The landscape is complex and the lightweight crown is highly contested by a number of parties. They are all situated around the world, in training camp for their own, essential contest, but one thing is for sure, they will be tuned in and paying close attention to this bout. Rafael dos Anjos looked set to defend the belt for a long time but ultimately this didn’t happen. He is well-rounded, strong and conditioned and tenacious. His aggressive Muay Thai style is backed up by two decades of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. He chewed through competition on his way to the title and then dominated then champion Anthony Pettis for five straight rounds.

Then he faced Eddie Alvarez in July earlier this year. A big right hook in the first round from Eddie Alvarez stole his legs and with it the world title. If he is going to get the belt back he cannot allow Ferguson to beat him and get a leg up. It would be a huge setback for dos Anjos, and the fuel that the ‘El Cucuy’ train needs to get him to the Octagon as a title challenger. Rafael has all of the tools to beat Ferguson but there is an unpredictability with his game that could pose all kinds of problems. Ferguson also enjoys a six-inch reach advantage which will force dos Anjos to use a close range game.

With opponents backed up against the fence he can pressure them until they break. Powerful boxing sets up shin kicks that chop into the thigh making basic movement difficult. From there he can look for the knockout shot as their hands drop and they fade or he can slam you to the ground and work to choke you out. Due to his shorter stature and thicker muscle mass, dos Anjos may be able to drag Ferguson to the ground and rough him up. The durability of ‘El Cucuy’ is unquestionable though and that could make for a long night.

Ferguson is a dangerous and proven finisher with an equal number of victories by knockout and submission. He is unorthodox in his approach and is excellent at using his reach to punish opponents from a distance. A disciple of the 10th Planet Jiu Jitsu system, he has a multitude of attacks for every situation. In preparation for this fight he set up camp in Big Bear California to prepare for the altitude of the venue in Mexico City. Many fighters have fallen victim to the thin air at that elevation. At over seven thousand feet, Mexico City Arena is the highest place most fighters will ever compete.

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It’s a clever investment taking his team to a similar location to prepare. He also took some of 10th Planet’s best, including the founder of the system, Eddie Bravo. Having trained there myself it suggests that he could be preparing to fight off his back at some point in the fight. If dos Anjos follows his regular gameplan then he will be punching his way into a takedown to nullify Ferguson’s reach. Placing ‘El Cucuy’ on his back and smothering him with a heavy top game would allow dos Anjos to beat Ferguson up and force a turn. Exposing his back for a choke.

If Ferguson is readying himself for a gritty ground exchange where he is on the back foot then he is surrounding himself with the right people. When fights between contenders this high in the rankings take place, we are guaranteed to see at least one of them put on the performance of their career. It will either be a spectacular finish, or a gritty back-and-forth battle to a close decision. For Ferguson it is the gateway to the gold. A chance to stake his claim at the lightweight throne. For dos Anjos it is possibly a last attempt to remain relevant in the title picture, at least without doing a lot of work to climb back up the rankings.

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Their bout sits atop a card of prospects and favourites, side by side. Diego Sanchez will welcome Marcin Held to the UFC. A talented grappler with an impressive 22-4 record, Held has submitted twelve opponents within the distance. A top contender in a different organisation, Marcin will want to beat Diego in devastating fashion and alert the rest of the division of his arrival. It already got a little heated during a press conference face off this week and it promises to be a great scrap.

Opening up the main card we also have Heather Jo Clark welcoming another debutant to the Octagon, in the form of Alexa Grasso. An undefeated prospect from the all-female MMA organisation, Invicta Fighting Championships, Grasso reigned supreme. With a perfect record of 8-0, stopping four with strikes in the first round, it’s a fight that will immediately determine whether she is UFC standard. Heather is a tough and well-rounded fighter with experience against good competition. Much like the main event of this card, the rising tide is upon her and the new waves of talent will continue to come through. Grasso is just that. The question is, who can hold their ground until it begins to recede.

Watch UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson live on BT Sport from midnight GMT on Saturday or catch the Early Prelims from 10.30pm GMT exclusively on UFC Fight Pass.