UFC 307 predictions: Alex Pereira vs Khalil Rountree Jr betting tips, odds and best bets

Two championships are on the line as UFC 307 swings into the Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Sunday morning (3am, TNT Sports 1 & Discovery+), as UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira faces Khalil Rountree Jr. and Julianna Pena gets a chance to reclaim the UFC’s women’s bantamweight title against Raquel Pennington.

The Utah card is jam-packed with well-known stars and features notable names from the early prelims all the way to the main event. Many will be surprised to see former headliner Stephen Thompson relegated to the prelims for his intriguing bout with Joaquin Buckley, with Tim Means, Ovince Saint Preux and Carla Esparza also among the bigger names to miss out on a main card slot.

Jose Aldo is back to build on his win over Jonathan Martinez in May and will warm-up the crowd for the two title fights with a challenging bout against submission specialist Mario Bautista. The consistently active Kevin Holland also features against Roman Dolidze in what should be an entertaining contest between two fighters who both possess an identical knockout win rate of 54 per cent.

Alex Pereira is rightfully a huge favourite with betting sites to walk through Khalil Rountree Jr., whose presence in the UFC 307 main event will come as a surprise to many.

The eighth-ranked light heavyweight is on a winning streak of five fights, granted, but he hasn’t beaten anyone in the current top 10. Pereira is a huge step up in competition; the current champion all-but stomping through a selection of the UFC’s current biggest names, including victories over Israel Adesanya, Jamahal Hill, Jan Blachowicz, Sean Strickland and two over closest competitor Jiri Prochazka.

The danger for Rountree is also elevated when you consider the two fighters’ styles. Pereira lands over five significant strikes per minute, leaning on his kickboxing base to maintain a high output. Rountree is extremely hittable and isn’t well-rounded enough to mix the fight up by taking it to the mat, where his lack of technical quality has left him exposed throughout his UFC career.

Pereira has finished his last three fights in brutal fashion and even saw off Hill inside the first round. He should be able to lay it on Rountree quickly and to devastating effect, as he’s capable of both one-shot KOs as well as intricately dissecting opponents who offer more resistance.

Rountree is an easy to love character and someone who a lot of fans will feel connected to since his rise from losing the Ultimate Fighter finale to Andrew Sanchez in 2016. He’s worked hard to sustain a good career, with explosive power and physicality proving an overwhelming asset during his best wins.

To give him more than a puncher’s chance against Pereira seems naive, though, as Rountree will need one of those special nights to top the outstanding Brazilian, who could reward those willing to invest in an early stoppage on betting apps.

UFC 307 prediction 1: Alex Pereira to beat Khalil Rountree Jr. in Round 1 - 11/5 LiveScore Bet

Four defeats in five fights has Stephen Thompson in an unlikely position: on the prelims. Wonderboy has been a huge draw for the UFC over the years and hasn’t been rewarded for constantly taking difficult fights into his forties, as Joaquin Buckley gets a shot at adding the biggest scalp of his career to his resume.

This is a difficult fight to call, with UFC betting sites offering very little edge to either fighter to come out on top. Buckley proved in his fight with Vicente Luque that he isn’t afraid of a big reputation, but he needs to get his gameplan right against the unique karate skills of Thompson.

Wonderboy’s ability to dictate range will be key. If he manages to bounce freely and push Buckley back, he should have good success at winning rounds on his feet. Buckley is more than capable of laying the damage on Thompson if he can close the space, and will also enjoy a significant advantage on the ground due to his wrestling base.

With that in mind, it’s imperative for Thompson to suck the life out of his opponent. He may be wary of committing too freely, as gaps in his arsenal could present Buckley with the opportunity to strike. If Wonderboy plays it smart and finds his timing, it could well turn into a frustrating night for Buckley, whose career would catapult with a win. We advise shopping around with new betting sites to find the best value.

UFC 307 prediction 2: Stephen Thompson to beat Joaquin Buckley via decision - 3/1 Unibet

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