What if Jon Jones loses at UFC 285?

Jon Jones does not know what it’s like to lose – not in the Octagon, and not outside of it.

It may seem a strange thing to say about a man has one loss on his record, who has twice lost a UFC title, and who has repeatedly lost control to the point of being arrested several times, and yet the point stands.

Jones’ sole loss in mixed martial arts came courtesy of a controversial disqualification for the use of illegal elbows. His two title losses saw the light-heavyweight belt taken from him not by an opponent but by the UFC, due to an arrest and a failed drug test respectively. And any time the 35-year-old has found himself in handcuffs and a jail cell, it has not been long before he has traded them for 4oz gloves and a gym.

In his 15-year career, Jones has been his own great rival, causing himself more problems than any of his opponents have. Not even dual-weight champion Daniel Cormier could trouble “Bones”, nor could champions Lyoto Machida, “Rampage” Jackson, “Shogun” Rua, Vitor Belfort, Rashad Evans and Glover Teixeira. That hit list, which also includes the likes of Alexander Gustafsson, Chael Sonnen, Stephan Bonnar and Ryan Bader, is just one reason why many fans see Jones as the greatest mixed martial artist of all time – in spite of his indiscretions in and out of the ring. Other reasons include his fight IQ – so at odds with his decision-making in other areas of his life – his adaptability, and his versatility.

It is not the American’s fault that he has rarely been tested in the Octagon, but then again, it has been a decade since he first promised a move up to heavyweight, a realm in which a different breed of athlete resides. But now, three years since his last fight, Jones finally makes a long-overdue return and a much-anticipated debut in a new weight class.

In the main event of UFC 285 this Saturday, a shot at the vacant title awaits. So does former interim champion Ciryl Gane, who is a different breed of heavyweight, even.

Questions abound. Jones retains a reach advantage but forfeits the height advantage that he held against so many of his challengers at 205lbs; will the bulked-up “Bones” also forgo the speed advantage that proved so vital at light-heavyweight? Will Gane, who in some areas resembles a heavyweight version of Jones, neutralise the American’s assets in kickboxing exchanges? If power-puncher Francis Ngannou could out-wrestle Gane, then how does the Frenchman prevent Jones from doing the same? Does Gane possess the punching power to appraise Jones’ chin like no light-heavyweight could?

Yet perhaps the most intriguing question is: What comes next for Jones?

The former champion recently revealed that he has eight fights left on his contract, saying: “Hopefully I can get through all eight fights; that’s a lot of fighting at 35 years old. We’ll see.” It is almost impossible to imagine Jones competing eight more times in the UFC, given his age and lack of activity in recent years. It is difficult to picture him fighting more than three times, and it is not even inconceivable that Saturday’s main event could be his last fight in the UFC – particularly if he loses.

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And if he wins? While there are talented fighters in both the heavyweight and light-heavyweight divisions, few have the combination of profile and prowess to inspire the ‘fear’ that Jones claims he needs. Reflecting on his uninspired and uninspiring final run before his hiatus, including the narrow wins over Dominick Reyes and Thiago Santos that many fans dispute, Jones said last week: “I stopped studying footage as much. I started just looking forward to another day at the office. The fear was gone, I didn’t really fear these guys. I was starting to fight guys like Reyes, who had been dreaming of fighting me probably since college, and he was just relatively unknown to the general public. I just wanted more. I wanted to be nervous again. I wanted to have fear again.”

Thirty-two-year-old Gane, with his impressive proclivity for mixing the martial arts this early in his career, should strike fear into “Bones”. However, it won’t be the type of intimidation that Ngannou would have inspired. Ngannou, a former teammate of Gane, is the most devastating puncher to have ever graced the UFC and was Jones’ preferred opponent before the Cameroonian’s UFC exit in January, which saw “The Predator” vacate the heavyweight title.

Beyond Gane, consensus heavyweight ‘GOAT’ Stipe Miocic has been out of the Octagon almost as long as Jones has. Curtis Blaydes is a viable opponent, but the wrestling specialist must first navigate a clash with Sergei Pavlovich. The latter could provide an intriguing match-up for Jones, but the Russian lacks the exposure and English skills to truly sell a fight with “Bones”. Rising British star Tom Aspinall is recovering from an injury and likely needs two wins to set up a title fight.

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At light-heavyweight, most would argue that new champion Jamahal Hill is short on the experience and skillset needed to overcome Jones, while “Sweet Dreams”’ predecessor Jiri Prochazka is out injured. The points that applied to Pavlovich apply to Magomed Ankalaev, and former champion Jan Blachowicz turned 40 last week.

If Jones can make it past Gane, and if he can make it to the end of the week without controversy arising, he will have proved himself capable of ushering in a new era of dominance. Then again, there is the potential for Jones to simply be overcome by apathy. In fact, that apathy may well be inevitable.

While “Bones” would no doubt love to dominate Gane, he does not crave long-term domination of the ilk that he used to inflict.

Win or lose on Saturday, this could yet be the end of Jones.

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