Ireland vs Argentina RWC 2015: Irish will be too hot for Pumas – thanks to Australia coach Michael Cheika!

I see the bookmakers have branded the first round of World Cup knockout matches as “relatively predictable” and are offering short odds on the four group winners making it through to the last four. From where I’m sitting, I’m not at all convinced that things are so straightforward. I certainly won’t collapse with shock if someone major gets rolled – and if it happens in one of Saturday's ties, it could create the conditions for all hell to break loose on Sunday.

Don’t get me wrong: most of the hard evidence points to a South Africa-New Zealand match-up in one semi-final, with Australia and Ireland squaring up in the other. And if that second game takes place, I’ll be transfixed. Having played Test rugby for both countries – I was born in Queensland into a family with deep Irish roots – I think I’ll be able to guarantee myself an interesting emotional ride as the rugby unfolds.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves: there’s some serious stuff going on this weekend. The way I see it, Scotland’s best chance of beating the Wallabies is closely connected with the weather: they’ve won in the wet before – their 9-6 victory on Aussie soil in New South Wales in 2012 was achieved in a gale-force downpour – and if conditions deteriorate this time, it will be a leveller. Another might be the performance of the referee Craig Joubert, which is about as easy to predict as the precise effects of climate change. Joubert is well capable of making the crazy call that impacts the result, especially when he has one eye on a second successive final.

Having said all that, the Wallabies should have too much of almost everything: even when they lost that 15-point mud-wrestle three years ago, it was a game they would probably have won four and a half times out of five. And if I’m honest, I feel the same about Ireland in their meeting with Argentina. I know they’ve had their issues with the Pumas at previous World Cups, but I’ve been impressed with their development over the course of this tournament.

Not that Argentina are anyone’s idea of a pushover. In the past, they’ve struggled to find a cutting edge: they’ve had a great set piece, a lumpy presence in the loose, all the niggle in the world… and no way of lighting things up in attack. I don’t believe that’s the case any more – from 11 to 15, they have people who can really play. I wrote during my time coaching London Irish that I was interested in bringing the outside-half Nicolas Sanchez to the Premiership. Looking at him now, I’m sure everyone can see why.

But now we’re in sudden-death territory, I’m not sure it’ll come down to fast backs running in dazzling tries off clever midfield distribution. In knockout rugby, it’s all about getting out of your own neck of the woods clean, not doing anything daft in the middle third and nailing your chances. World Cup rugby at the back end of a tournament gets uglier and uglier, and few teams do ugly as well as the Pumas on a good day.

So the situation is clear: Ireland, shorn of a great captain in Paul O’Connell and a couple of class flankers through injury and suspension, will have to find the best of themselves to survive the weekend. I think they will, for the good reason that Michael Cheika – the man in charge of the Australian side I expect them to meet in the semi-finals – has had a massive impact on the Irish game, as well as the Wallaby one. How? By driving standards during his time with Leinster. It is that Leinster contingent who are so influential at Test level now.

Indeed, I’d go as far as to say that Joe Schmidt, the Ireland coach, is cultivating a field initially ploughed by Cheika, and he’s been helped no end by another Aussie – the defence coach Les Kiss. Les, a good friend of mine, is responsible for introducing the “choke tackle”, which has been one of Ireland’s signature techniques for a while and continues to be hugely effective.

If Les gets a swipe at his countrymen next weekend, he’ll be in his element. He played a large part in dismantling the Wallaby attack when Ireland beat Australia in a pool game at the last World Cup in New Zealand – a result that made a right mess of the knockout schedule – and I know how much he’ll relish the opportunity of doing it again.

What none of us will relish is another round of disciplinary hearings and tournament-ending bans off the back of these four quarters. It goes without saying that serious crimes need punishing, but I can’t be alone in thinking referees are concentrating on half a dozen specific areas under instruction from men in suits and ignoring another dozen, all of which are equally important to the outcome of a game. One example: the scrum put-in. This is a running joke. I’m not sure why the No 9s bother to feed the set piece at all. If they’re going to be permitted to stick the ball in their own second row, why not just dummy the feed, flick the ball to the outside-half while nobody is watching and have done with it?

Rugby games have to be refereed in the round, with sympathy and understanding as well as a detailed knowledge of the laws. It’s no good the powers that be telling the officials to be hot on A, B and C while hinting that D and E don’t matter. Let’s have some empathy here. After all, it’s a World Cup.

Brian Smith was England’s attack coach at the 2011 World Cup