Jonathan Davies: Welsh see light in the Black shadow

Wales will spend this week convincing themselves that they have what it takes to beat New Zealand at the Millennium Stadium on Saturday, or at least run them close enough to cause some serious discomfort.

It might seem like whistling in the dark, because no team cast a shadow like these All Blacks, but I believe it is not too fanciful for Gareth Jenkins and his men to get a bit bullish about their chances.

After all, England scored three tries against New Zealand at Twickenham two weeks ago and if that early one hadn't been shamefully disallowed it would have been much less of a romp than the 41-20 scoreline suggested. Added to which England made so many unforced errors they played into the hands of a team who punish mistakes mercilessly.

As for the French, they were totally inept in their first attempt to keep the All Blacks at bay and, once again, their many mistakes were clinically dealt with. The answer, of course, is not to make errors against them. Ridiculously simple as that sounds, it the sort of mindset you must develop, because you just cannot afford to miss a tackle, drop a pass or lose a turnover without getting severely punished for it.

New Zealand will be just as aware that Wales possess a back division capable of snapping up chances against anyone in the world, and they'll be banking on gaining their usual command of the contact area to ensure there will be slim pickings.

This is where Wales must fasten their highest hopes. At the heart of New Zealand's superiority is their forceful competitiveness at the breakdown. Not only are they exceptionally strong and skilful in contact, they are experts at getting away with murder when it comes to offside, slowing down opposition ball and playing the referee. They cannot be allowed to get away with it. New rules say players are not supposed to talk to referees, but the captain has to make him aware of what's going on.

You are not trying to influence the official, you are trying to ensure he keeps a close observation on what is happening at the breakdown.

The Welsh pack will be the best the All Blacks will have met this autumn and if Wales can get parity up front, win their ball at the set-pieces and get their share in the loose, then their backs have the ability to score tries.

Not that these brave words should detract from my view that New Zealand are a fantastic side. They are all footballers loaded with ability not only to play but to think their way around the pitch. Some say that they are the best All Black outfit ever. I'm not sure about that. They'll have to win next year's World Cup before they lay claim to that title.

To that end, Graham Henry has used the rotation system to create a squad with colossal strength in depth. I'm not sure that's enough. New Zealand's sad record in the World Cup - they've won it only once - has not been due to a lack of strength in depth. They have invariably looked the strongest but have lost in one vital game where they have got it wrong tactically or performed below par.

The Welsh team, who will be hoping that will be the case on Saturday, will be hard to select given the number of fine individual performances we've seen recently. Kevin Morgan deserves the full-back role, and I wouldn't be surprised if Gareth Thomas is moved to the wing. Mark Jones and Shane Williams are the form wingers but perhaps Thomas is the better man for the early war of attrition, with Shane in reserve.

If Stephen Jones cannot shake off his knee injury, James Hook and Ceri Sweeney will contest No 10. Jenkins may go for Sweeney's greater experience at running a game. In the centre Tom Shanklin and Sonny Parker are in great form, but excluding Gavin Henson runs the risk of missing his kicking option, and if he is fit I would play him.

The heroic roles Wales will expect from the back row will probably be entrusted to Martyn Williams, Jonathan Thomas and Ryan Jones. But you can expect all the replacements to get their chance to be heroes.