Wales eye up impossible Dublin job in Six Nations rivalry that risks losing its shine

There is probably a parallel universe, not too different from our own, where Wales head into round three of the 2024 Six Nations with two wins from two and still in the grand slam hunt.

It’s certainly not too hard to imagine that rip-roaring second-half comeback against Scotland on the opening day leading to just one more measly try or penalty and thus a legendary victory, rather than an agonising 27-26 defeat. And it’s similarly easy to envisage them converting that hard-fought 14-5 half-time lead at Twickenham a fortnight ago into a win, rather than watching England successfully overcome their biggest Six Nations deficit to scrape a 16-14 triumph.

Wales have produced a good 80 minutes across the two games so far in this year’s championship. Unfortunately, their other 80 minutes have been two halves of scoreless rugby which means that, back in our actual world, the ledger reads: played two, lost two.

And now comes the biggest reality check of all – a clash with Ireland at the Aviva Stadium. No matter how vast the multiverse is, there might not be a single one where this inexperienced Wales squad is able to topple Andy Farrell’s green machine.

A trip to Dublin may be perfect for a stag do or a fun weekend away, but it has become a nightmare for international rugby players. Facing Ireland at Fortress Aviva has become the single hardest task in northern hemisphere rugby. But for the All Blacks’s frankly ludicrous record at Auckland’s Eden Park – where they are on a 48-Test unbeaten streak stretching back to 1994 – it would be the toughest assignment in world rugby.

It was a Warren Gatland side that were the most recent team to avoid defeat at New Zealand’s stronghold, when the 2017 British & Irish Lions memorably snatched an impressive, and contentious, 15-15 draw, but marshalling this youthful Welsh group to successfully storm the Aviva on Saturday would be an even greater achievement.

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Just once since 2019 have Ireland suffered defeat on home turf – when France came to an empty stadium during the Covid pandemic in 2021 and left with a 15-13 win – while their record stretching even further back reads just two defeats in the last 40 matches as hosts. Wales have lost nine of their last 10 Six Nations games while, conversely, victory for Ireland on Saturday would see them equal England’s all-time record of 11 straight victories in the tournament.

Wales themselves have not triumphed in Dublin since 2012 – and that was a grand slam-winning team, which the current group are most emphatically not. Ireland have won six of the last seven fixtures between the teams, regardless of location. The last two years have seen Farrell’s men ruthlessly secure 24-point and 22-point victories.

The Welsh-Irish rivalry may not have the same weight of history behind it that, for example, England’s clash with, well... everyone... has but during the 2000s and 2010s, on and off-field factors turned it into one of rugby’s most consistently mouthwatering match-ups.

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Both teams enjoyed spells where they had the upper hand – Ireland won seven of eight fixtures from 2001 to 2007 but Wales responded with a run of four from six – while there were also times when it was tough to separate them, with the nine contests between 2013 and early 2019 ending with four wins apiece and a draw. They both celebrated grand slams and won multiple Six Nations titles during that time, while world-class players on both sides made for high-quality Tests that often had huge stakes in determining the destination of trophies. Six Nations rivals turned to Lions teammates but had no problem switching back to foes once that four-yearly tour was over.

Perhaps the biggest catalyst for the growing rivalry was Gatland himself. Given how synonymous he has become with Welsh rugby, it’s easy to forget that the New Zealander got his first big international break as a fresh-faced 34-year-old when he was appointed Ireland head coach in 1998. He moved the team a couple of places up the world ranking during his three years in charge before things ended sourly in late 2001.

Having just led the team to a runners-up finish in the 2001 Six Nations – only missing out on the title on points difference, beating an England side that would conquer the world just two years later and routing Wales by 30 points – Gatland was stunned that, in a short meeting at Landsdowne Road, the IRFU informed him his contract wasn’t being renewed. One of his assistant coaches, Eddie O’Sullivan, immediately took over and Gatland felt stabbed in the back, creating a simmering resentment towards Ireland that would manifest once he got the top Wales job in 2007, having created a club dynasty at Wasps.

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Ahead of a 2009 contest between the sides, Gatland famously told the media: “Of all the teams in the Six Nations, the Welsh players dislike the Irish the most and they are all very motivated to be playing on Saturday.” Was Gatland projecting his own feelings towards their Celtic rival? Perhaps. Certainly since that day, Wales players including Shane Williams and Tom Shanklin have admitted the squad were largely bemused by their coach’s comment.

On the other side, Ireland fans have maintained that Gatland held a vendetta towards Irish players when he coached the Lions, generally citing as evidence his controversial decision to drop Brian O’Driscoll for the decisive final Test of the 2013 tour to Australia (which the Lions went on to win 41-16) and the call not to pick Johnny Sexton for the 2021 tour of South Africa.

Whatever the truth, Gatland’s presence has added spice to the rivalry and he’s been up to some of his old tricks this week, trying to unsettle Ireland’s rookie full back Ciaran Frawley – who starts for the injured Hugo Keenan – by writing in his Daily Telegraph column that Wales “can look to put pressure on Frawley” and suggesting that “he predominantly plays at 10 and 12 for Leinster and in the two games he played at full back for them, they lost.” He also boldly claimed that Wales would rather face Ireland’s full starting XV rather than the second-string side they played against Italy last time out, due to being more familiar with the regular starters.

The attempted mind games are an admirable move from Gatland as he desperately throws as much stuff at the wall as he can in the hope that something sticks. However, the reality is that Wales are just starting their rebuilding process while Ireland may be the most complete side in world rugby. It’s hard to imagine the current group of men in red being able to ransack Dublin on Saturday and if Ireland-Wales fixtures continue to be as one-sided as they currently appear, this shining rivalry is in grave danger of losing its lustre.