Stuart Hogg: Facing South Africa makes you think ‘when is this going to stop’ but here’s how Ireland can win

South Africa against Ireland could be the game of the tournament. Every weekend so far at this Rugby World Cup we’ve had big games to look forward to, but I think this one might top France vs New Zealand on the opening night. This is massive in terms of Pool B, the pool of death.

This will be like a long game of chess. At times, there could be a lot of kicking to see who cracks first. I’ve talked before about South Africa knowing their DNA better than anyone else, but I think the closest team to that would be Ireland. Look at the seven forwards to one back split on the bench – South Africa know exactly what they are going to do. They are going to be hugely physical, they are going to stick to their gameplan and try to shut Ireland down defensively. But Ireland are a very clever rugby side that will no doubt have gone over South African performances with a fine toothcomb and picked out many opportunities to exploit.

A massive strength of South Africa is their defence, their line speed and their ability to win huge collisions. You just feel suffocated when you come up against the Springboks’ blitz defence. I remember playing against it on the 2021 British and Irish Lions tour. You just had no room to breathe whatsoever. It was relentless – it came at you time and time again. You were just thinking: “When is this going to stop?”

Watch South Africa’s outside centre: for the past few years it has been Lukhanyo Am and now it is Jesse Kriel. They are two unbelievable defenders and very smart. If you look at them and their defensive line, you can see them pointing and counting, determining their defensive shape.

If Ireland are able to get linebreaks early on, it’ll potentially make South Africa change things and not bring as much linespeed. But if South Africa come hard and get them early doors, it’s going to be a long old day, because the confidence and trust will build. You see so many opportunities when you are watching them on laptops, but it is about having the ability and accuracy to take them on the field. You have to make the most of your opportunities because you might only get three or four.

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Now, if you can get in behind South Africa, generate quick balls and keep that alive, they don’t have the time to reset and come forward. Scotland challenged them at times and Ireland will have a huge idea of how it is going to work. Expect Ireland to play one or two pass plays in close to try and nullify that linespeed in defence, pick at their strength.

There are various ways to challenge South Africa’s defensive line: multi-options, two lines of attack, playing on top of them with little passes to try and get someone to bite out of defence, or trying to put little inside balls in and around them. Ireland are a great attack. They are ruthless and have real cutting edge. They are a very clever rugby side and will try and move you around in areas that are strengths on their side, or weaknesses they’ve identified in your defensive line.

Ireland captain and fly half Johnny Sexton will have had a massive say in how things have gone in training this week. Whenever Ireland hold the ball, they have set-piece plays that will break you in the first phase, break you in the second phase and even in the third or fourth phase. They’ll try and find avenues into the game to get their returns plays, little offloads and little kicks going. They have probably been keeping some of their intricate plays back for this game.

It was great to see Sexton back and fitting in seamlessly during the wins against Romania and Tonga, trying to get that cohesion back in their squad so that, when it came to this weekend, they were ready to go all guns blazing. Some teams get into the 22 and look at making their attack simpler and easier; Ireland look at it the opposite way, they will try plays that will shift defences. You’ll see Bundee Aki crash it up on the first phase and then they’ll set up an intricate play to the short side two or three phases later. They see these opportunities and execute them, and if not, they’ll go to another play to exploit something they might have seen.

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The battle of the back rows is key. A large amount of this game will be won on the floor. Think about Siya Kolisi and Pieter-Steph du Toit against Caelan Doris, Josh van der Flier and Peter O’Mahony – this is what these guys live for. O’Mahony is one of the biggest nuisances in world rugby, and I mean that in the nicest possible way. He puts his body on the line time and again and has a massive impact in every game he plays, and he’ll be fired up.

The quicker the ball that Ireland can produce and get on the front foot with will nullify the South African linespeed in defence. If South Africa get bodies over the ball and slow it down, Ireland will probably have to revert back to a kicking game that the Springboks have known all their lives.

I’m not surprised that South Africa have gone for a 7/1 split of forwards to backs on the bench. Their game is based on physicality and being able to back that up time and time again. If you watch their warm-up test against New Zealand at Twickenham, they swapped out everybody other than Du Toit and the game went up another level. You’ll often see a new front row come on together, the “bomb squad”, and make an impact, but those seven forwards came on fresh and absolutely destroyed the first scrum. They are there to make a massive impact.

Bench splits are often determined by who you are playing. The Springboks went with a 5/3 split against Scotland; they believe this game could be a lot more physical and have gone for a 7/1. I remember going down to Northampton with Glasgow years ago with only two backs on the bench. I injured my knee in the first five minutes and Sean Lamont fractured his cheekbone, we ended up with a hooker and a back row in midfield by the end of the game. That changed our perspective. We didn’t go with a 6/2 split for a while after that.

A 7/1 is a little bit different. Yes, nobody has really done that before but if the Springboks believe it and think it is going to work for them, why not? At the end of the day, you are there to win a Test match. You do exactly what you’ve got to do to win it.

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I believe they will have been practising for a long, long time. Obviously, they’ve got full faith in their backline and, if anything were to happen, faith in guys like back row Kwagga Smith to step into the midfield or on the wing. They played four scrum halves in their matchday 23 against Romania – they’ve got talent that can slot in wherever needed. They’ll have practised all these different scenarios during the week. No 8 Jasper Wiese was speaking on Instagram about how he had been practising his throwing just in case something happens to a hooker during a match!

They wouldn’t have gone into a Test match of such magnitude with a 7/1 split if they didn’t believe and back it. They are backing themselves to do it and I am excited to see how that goes. This could be one hell of a physical Test match and an absolutely cracking game.

Scotland need to win with a bonus point against Tonga to keep their hopes alive in the pool. We were in this situation at the last World Cup, too, where we needed wins but also had to go out there and score four tries. In 2019, we went into the second game against Samoa in Kobe and I don’t think we got that fourth score, a penalty try, until the 77th or 78th minute. We went in at half-time 20-0 up having scored two tries but it was bloody difficult to try and get that bonus point. We probably tried to force it a little bit too early.

Gregor Townsend will have learned from that. You can’t go out there chasing bonus points. You have to win the game first. It might take 60 or 70 minutes for the bonus point to come but it will if they get it right. When Scotland get their gameplan spot on and execute, the bonus point will take care of itself. I was in that squad for 11 years – I know exactly what that team is about.

Tonga played against the No 1 side in the world, Ireland, last week and didn’t really fire a shot in a 59-16 defeat. But you’d take any of their players in your side. Charles Piutau is one of the best full-backs in the world. Have you seen that left-foot step? In all the times I played against Piutau, I knew that left-foot step was coming but I still couldn’t get him. I couldn’t lay a finger on him.

This will be Tonga’s cup final. They have nothing to lose, nobody is expecting them to be in a position to qualify for the quarter-final given the three other teams in that pool. I wouldn’t write them off but I completely back Scotland this weekend. It is win or bust.