Six Nations predictions: England move clear as heavy favourites but little chance of an upset in week two
The Independent has teamed up with QBE Business Insurance to predict the opening weekend of the Six Nations
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Your support makes all the difference.England’s victory over Ireland last weekend has seen them surge ahead in the race to win the Six Nations championship as they head into Sunday’s encounter with France as heavy favourites.
The Independent has teamed up with QBE Business Insurance to provide predictions for each round of matches every Friday during the Six Nations, which continues this weekend with the second round that opens up in Edinburgh as Scotland and Ireland meet at Murrayfield before Italy host Wales in Rome, with England and France colliding at Twickenham on Sunday afternoon.
QBE Business Insurance has based its predictions on a complex mathematical formula created by a team of experts whose day job is to help businesses anticipate the likelihood and impact of risks so that they can prepare for and manage them properly.
The computer model has simulated each game 10,000 times with an average score taken to find the final result. Actuaries inputted a wide range of rugby variables including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by the teams involved, as well as the experience of each team's captain and who has the benefit of home territory.
Scotland lead the Six Nations table after the opening round thanks to the five-try victory over Italy last weekend, but Ireland head into Saturday’s opener as marginal favourites despite their defeat against England, with our predictor putting the men in green as 24-17 favourites.
Despite returning home this weekend, it’s still grim reading for Italy as Wales are 95 per cent favourites to emerge from the Stadio Olimpico with the victory in the bag, with a 40-11 win favourable despite Wales’ numerous personnel changes.
Finally, the Anglo-French affair at Twickenham is unlikely to see a repeat of the 2018 upset as England are overwhelming 81 per cent favourites with a score of 30-16, strengthening their current chances of overall glory. After the first round of fixtures, England are 55 per cent likely to win the title and 34 per cent to make it a Grand Slam, with Wales next up in both categories at 24 per cent and 13 per cent respectively.
But of course, just like the unpredictable nature of life and business, anything can happen in the Six Nations and you can expect the unexpected this weekend.
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