Scotland vs England: Hope springs again for Scots, but Richie Gray must repair a leaky defence

Scotland have been here before, on the Six Nations start line buoyed by the memory of a promising autumn, looked around at the opposition and asserted: “Yes, we can do something here.” Six weeks later, so recent scripts have been written, the Scots find themselves piled in a disgruntled heap of blue jerseys wondering what went wrong.

It is, then, a familiar doubt that has nagged in the background of Scotland’s bubbly regrouping for the first time since a World Cup campaign that, for all its agonising finale, left them more satisfied than England or any other European side. There is genuinely more cause for optimism than in recent seasons, but if it is to stand up to the intense scrutiny of the Six Nations – and, as Vern Cotter suggested this week, there is no examination quite like the northern hemisphere’s annual roll in the mud – then there remain areas where marked improvement is still a necessity, in particular in discipline and defence.

Scotland shipped nine tries in their last two World Cup games, against Samoa and Australia, and they let Ireland score four in the last Six Nations game at Murrayfield, a shambolic performance that confirmed the wooden spoon. Scotland have issues in defence. As their attack has improved – and they now possess try-scoring potential across the back line via Finn Russell, Mark Bennett, Tommy Seymour and Stuart Hogg – so their defence seems to have loosened.

Cotter’s recruitment of Richie Gray could prove the most adroit selection of his Six Nations master plan. Gray, a Scot, spent the World Cup in South Africa’s employ, with one of his tasks to plan the Springboks’ means of getting the better of his home nation’s defence in their pool meeting. South Africa scored three tries and Cotter’s notion is in part that, if Gray had a fair idea how to unpick Scotland’s defensive line, he should be able to help defence coach Matt Taylor secure it again.

There is one sure-fire way of keeping the opposition out –retain the ball – and that is the other key responsibility for Gray, whose job title is breakdown coach. Cotter has in his two back-row Johns, Hardie and Barclay, effectively picked two open-sides in the belief that if a disciplined, athletic Scotland can stay on their feet to win the battle of the breakdown, as Australia did against England, and most others, in the World Cup, then Scotland can stretch the English. “Continuity” and “accuracy” have been Cotter’s watchwords this week.

In some ways this game between sides marshalled by southern hemisphere coaches will be a re-enactment of Anglo-Scottish engagements of old, English might against Scottish harrying. Scotland are preparing for English attempts to bully them up front and control the contest from there.

“They will want to dominate us,” said Cotter. “I don’t see why we shouldn’t take them on in their strong points and see if things open up because of it.”

This is an area where Scotland are quietly confident they can further their recent progress – and where they will have to if a win on opening day for only the second time in the Six Nations is to be theirs.

“The Six Nations is a momentum-based tournament, so if you can win early it gives you confidence,” said Scots captain Greig Laidlaw.

This is the most convincing eight Scotland have assembled in recent years and while the Gray brothers in the second row and the potential dynamism of the back row attract most attention, it is in the all-Edinburgh front three that Scotland’s improvement has been most marked. Much of this is down to the arrival of WP Nel, after eight caps already the cornerstone of the pack.

Only Hardie, another Scottish import, has fewer caps across the 30 men who will start today than the South African but the 29-year-old, who served his time qualifying by propping for Edinburgh, has taken to international rugby with quiet relish and, according to Stuart McInally, the Edinburgh hooker who starts on the bench today, Nel is raring to get back into it.

“He is itching at the bit,” said McInally, who scrummaged against Nel in training this week. “He has not stopped smiling all week and has really embraced his role. I have never seen him play so well as he has this season.”

Scotland need Nel, Ross Ford and Alasdair Dickinson – the latter two with over 150 caps between them – to provide the beef off which Cotter’s cunning plan can develop. Parity up front, clarity at the breakdown, accuracy in defence and Scotland – the underdogs, whatever the England coach, Eddie Jones, has suggested – might, just might, get a head start.

“When we tick those boxes,” suggested the notoriously dour Cotter, “we will, hopefully, have half a smile on our faces.”