RWC 2015: Australia vs New Zealand: Down here, we’re sure the All Blacks will win... unless we choke

Oh all right, I’ll say it then: we’re confident.

The All Blacks are far better than the Wallabies and should be clear – if not comfortable – victors in today’s World Cup final. We have better attacking options, and we have more of them. The Aussies have beaten us once in their last dozen attempts. Our players have more experience – and, crucially, more experience at contesting and winning World Cup finals. Their coaches are newbies at this level, while All Black boss Steve Hansen has been plotting this course since he arrived in the All Blacks set-up in 2004. His side has lost just three games since winning the last World Cup four years ago.

In short, that bull-headed, arrogant note they left written on their whiteboard a couple of years ago – “We are the most dominant team in the history of the world” – is pretty much bang on the mark.

Want more? Here you go. The Wallabies are overrated. They coasted through a deceptively easy pool against two dysfunctional home sides, were saved by the ref against Scotland in the quarter-final and would have blown their semi-final if not for Argentina’s first-quarter nerves. Israel Folau is flat bust and Bernard Foley is a fake. David Pocock? A one-trick pony.

And yet…

If there’s a Rugby World Cup going on and the All Blacks haven’t yet choked, that just means our choke is still to come. We choked last time. Most of the world forgets it, but the All Blacks definitely freaked under pressure four years ago in the final against France at Eden Park, squeaking home against the wobbly Gauls 8-7.

So here, in our homes in Auckland, we’ve been staring glumly at our televisions, looking for signs of the choke. There hasn’t been a whisper of it, so instead we’ve imagined a few. “We should have put 50 points on Argentina,” says the Man in the Pub. “And 100 on Namibia,” adds his mate.

As noted by right-thinking genealogists and criminologists, New Zealanders tend to be more sophisticated than Australians. While their newspapers this week brashly campaigned against the “Richetty Grub” (complete with a cartoon depiction of Richie McCaw as a grub-like nuisance at the bottom of a ruck), ours offer a more dignified appraisal. For us, it’s a battle of two great sides. Kiwis simply don’t do wild vitriol on these events. We’re too anxious. Come kick-off, we’ll just sit around our TV screens quietly freaking out in the middle of the night.

For fans here in New Zealand, the head says we will win. Only our hearts trouble us.

When we’ve managed to stop staring glumly at All Blacks matches, the tournament has been great viewing, with better quality rugby than the 2011 show could boast. It should be a nice final too – one decided by teams that prefer running into open space rather than seeking out tacklers. From down here, the tournament has been blighted only by television match officials making interventions so protracted and long-winded they could have been directed by Sir Peter Jackson.

Now, the final push. For Kiwis, there’s actually not much fun to be had from beating Australia at rugby. When we win – which we usually do – the Aussies are quick to point out that rugby is only their 87th most popular sport, coming in just below “competitive beer can crushing” and slightly ahead of “stalking British backpackers through the desert”.

Australia’s canny coach, Michael Cheika, worries us. Kiwis see in him an Aussie many of us have come to know, the shrewd swagman who could get a can of fizzy drink and spare change out of a vending machine after putting in a $3 note. One day, he’ll figure the All Blacks out. But not today. Not on Richie’s day.

The McCaw-shaped void in New Zealand’s man-love consciousness will be tough to fill. He’s been playing for us since the year the Twin Towers went down. A brilliant player and an honest team man, Kiwi blokes see in McCaw nuggets of awesomeness we’d love to imagine in ourselves.

None of the other 14 men who take the field will want to live the rest of their days as “the guy who let down Richie at the final hurdle”. As ever, it’s fear of failure that makes the All Blacks strong.

So spare a thought for us, staring nervously at our TVs. Win or get beaten, we’re losing the greatest player of all time at the final whistle.