Rugby World Cup final - New Zealand vs Australia: Michael Cheika's team has the ability to overcome their bitter rivals, says Brian Smith

When people up there in the northern hemisphere cast an eye over today’s World Cup final contenders, they must be tempted to see the match in the context of a local dispute between two far-flung nations. But the Wallaby-All Black rivalry runs every bit as deep as any in the union code. When England play Scotland – or Wales, or Ireland, or France, or anyone anywhere – the fixture has an edge to it. The same applies when we Aussies meet those damned Kiwis, irrespective of the venue.

I played against the New Zealanders back in the day – at school, Under-21 and Test levels – and in that era, there wasn’t much socialising going on. I don’t remember having conversations with the men in black and I certainly don’t recall breaking bread with them outside of the after-match formalities. If I wasn’t having a run at the Hong Kong Sevens, our paths would rarely cross. It took me years to realise that Grant Fox, one of the biggest All Black names at the time, was a ripping bloke.

We didn’t like them much, if I’m being honest. Nothing personal, you understand: it was just the way things were. When I was a young player working my way towards Wallaby status, the older blokes would tell me about the unspeakable things the All Blacks did to our jerseys in the changing room. Were those stories true? I doubt it. Did I believe them? Probably. Somehow, the New Zealanders seemed easier to beat if you felt you had a problem with them.

The sport has changed: the advent of Super Rugby and the growth of the southern hemisphere international programme means the players see more of each other over the course of a single season than they did in a decade during the 1970s and 1980s. But that doesn’t dilute the sense of rivalry, still less invalidate it or render it obsolete, and with the Webb Ellis Cup up for grabs, I can see today’s game being as bitterly fought as any in recent memory.

Technically and tactically speaking, there are good reasons to think the Wallabies can revisit those brief periods in rugby history when they could legitimately claim supremacy over the ABs. Agreed, they made things pretty hard for themselves in the semi-final with Argentina, just as they did on quarter-final day against Scotland and in the game before that against the Welsh. But there was some good stuff in there too.

Stephen Larkham, the attack coach, engineered some clever moves against the Pumas: I loved the way the Wallabies attacked the scrum-half Martin Landajo down the blind-side channel at line-outs and, ultimately, Nick Phipps gave Drew Mitchell the opportunity to set off on one of his coast-to-coast runs and set up the match-clinching try for Adam Ashley-Cooper. I also thought the defensive effort had a lot going for it. That combination of stoicism and raw guts can be hard to break.

And then there was David Pocock at No 8, who put down a huge marker as a “player of the tournament” candidate. He’s in a league of his own as a fetcher, Richie McCaw or no Richie McCaw, and his turnover work saved the Wallabies’ skin on a number of occasions. I believe he has the capacity to pinch three or four crucial balls off the All Blacks too and, if he does so, it could be enough.

But on the flip side, the Wallabies have some major improvements to make, notably at scrum and line-out. In the first area, they have to deal with the perception that they are a weak set-piece unit – something that may or may not have led Wayne Barnes, a quality referee in most respects, to hammer the loose-head prop James Slipper in the Argentina match. I didn’t think the New Zealanders were any great shakes in this department in their own semi-final, so there must be a chance that the tournament will be decided by scrum penalties, not all of them accurate. That would be a travesty.

As for the line-out, there were too many missed calls and too much sloppy execution against the Pumas. What worries me here is that the All Blacks’ line-out defence against the Springboks was outstanding. If the Wallabies don’t make themselves close to impregnable on their own throw, they’ll find themselves in difficulties.

Lost possession usually translates into quality ball for the opposition – a serious danger when a scrum-half like Aaron Smith is on your case. The All Black No 9 thrives on fast “pill” and is almost unplayable off two quick rucks in succession. If the Wallabies are to shut him down, the entire team (not just the back row) will have to defend with great line speed, enormous commitment in the tackle and an accurate approach to the jackal work at the breakdown.

Are they equipped to do all this and more? As a good Australian, I can answer that question in only one way. In Michael Cheika, they have a coach who is playing a blinder: every judgement call he’s made has been spot on, right from the early moments up in Brisbane, when he pulled together a divided squad and spent three days behind closed doors sorting things out. He’s been consistent in his messages and worked wonders in keeping the players’ noses pointing in the same direction.

Who’ll win? My heart says the Wallabies, because that’s what Australian hearts are meant to do. My head says we’ll need a little good fortune, but who doesn’t? Ask those bloody New Zealanders, who needed all the luck going to beat the French in Auckland four years ago.

Brian Smith was England’s attack coach at the 2011 World Cup