Why England believe against South Africa this time, even if you don’t

The England players will remember the feeling. Look back on the images of that night in Yokohama and see the empty eyes, despair writ large on wounded faces as South Africa celebrated beyond them. The Springboks had not just secured World Cup victory but romped to it, an England side coursing with optimism after a stunning semi-final performance against New Zealand left lifeless and limp.

To some extent, it is a low from which England have never recovered. The last four years have exposed deep flaws both within the national team and the game more widely, with talks of an even more radical domestic overhaul. The 23 Englishmen involved then were the youngest collective to reach a World Cup final: the promise and potential of that group has been frittered away, Eddie Jones indulged past the point of no return and then sacked with less than a year until this tournament.

The gamble that the Rugby Football Union (RFU) took when disposing of Jones at the end of the autumn last year relied entirely on getting to this point, the union recognising that a relatively friendly draw meant progression to the last four would remain eminently achievable even with a late change of coach.

Unlike Wales and Australia, who balanced the same equation when making their own regime changes and entered this tournament in a similar state, England have at least given themselves a shot in a semi-final. The meticulous Steve Borthwick proved the right man to plot an emergency course. Barring a total thrashing on Saturday night, his side have avoided embarrassment, navigating out of the choppy waters of August and through calmer September seas.

But there’s a Springbok storm on the horizon. Given the different strata the two sides seem to occupy, it is unsurprisingly that few give them hope against South Africa, but England have fed off an underdog mentality throughout this tournament, insisting they’ve been written off too soon. England believe they have the bite to back up that bark.

“Obviously it was disappointing four years ago,” said wing Elliot Daly, among 13 England matchday squad members in 2019 taking on the Springboks again. “But I think the feel around this team is that it’s a very different team to then.

“Obviously, I had a bit of time out from the squad and, since coming back in, there’s a different feeling within this group. We are going to try and harness that. We’ve had the last year, two years of planning going into this, to hopefully perform our best on the weekend.”

To make next week’s showpiece will require a performance at a level above anything they have produced in France so far. While South Africa will be wary of a team with little to lose, they are better than this England team in virtually every facet, their gameplan more complete and cohesive. Keep their heads and a final berth is theirs for the taking.

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The focus, as always with a Springbok side, will be on the majesty of their muscular pack and the extent to which England can match their might both at the set piece and tackling punch. But their ability to offer diverse attacking threat can sometimes go overlooked – the backing of Manie Libbok at 10, a baton-waving maestro to Handre Pollard’s ticking metronome. This is a complete and very good rugby team forged over five years in Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber’s kiln.

England, by contrast, are having to do it all in the pressure game. Recognising that there is no time to throw all of their irons in the fire, England have focused on what they call their “building blocks” – the set piece, fitness, and a kick pressure game.

The plan is to physically peak again for this contest, having sagged slightly against Samoa after their pool stage rest week and building back up against Fiji. Strong final quarters have been a theme of England’s tournament but there is no doubt that they will need a full 80-minute performance, which the squad admit they have yet to produce, to topple the world champions.

“The belief is strong in this team,” Steve Borthwick insisted. “I sensed that all the way through since I got involved again with the team.

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“There are players who have performed to the very highest of levels. Players who have played knockout rugby, finals rugby before.”

In 2019, Siya Kolisi stated that he felt South Africa had beaten England in the World Cup final because of their greater motivation, a sense that they were playing something bigger. The Springboks captain has revisited that motif this week but England don’t lack for belief – and insist that, this time, it will be different.

“There’s definitely a different energy around the place this week in comparison to other big games I’ve played,” articulated Maro Itoje. “There’s a different feel. There’s a heightened sense of awareness, a heightened sense of what needs to be done.

“I think people are aware of what’s at stake. People are aware of the importance of doing your job, the importance of doing your role within the team. There’s not many opportunities to be at this stage or at this level. This is an experience for us to take the bull by the horns.”