Alan Watkins: Toulouse lies at the end of European Cup's arithmetical alleyways

This is the stage of the Heineken European Cup when most of my colleagues incorporate in their reports – or even write whole articles about – the intricate arithmetic involved in calculating the identity of the eight clubs qualifying for the quarter-finals of the competition. Mystic Meg is often called in aid. The word "byzantine'' puts in the occasional appearance.

I am none the wiser. I am not even better informed. By this time next week, we shall all be clearer in our minds. Ulster will have played Northampton. Matches which may turn out to be of equal importance will also have been decided.

In these circumstances, the sensible course is to follow the advice of the last Liberal Prime Minister, H H Asquith: "Wait and see.'' (David Lloyd George, who came after Asquith, held office as head of a coalition).

This annual bout of mathematical speculation, as much part of the passing year as the Eurovision Song Contest, has a simple cause. It is that eight teams have to be chosen from six groups. The two best runners-up go forward with the six top teams. Hence the numerous references to pocket calculators, hot coffee and cold towels.

But there is an equally simple way of avoiding this yearly bout of figure-manipulation. It is to expand the competition to eight groups of (as at present) four clubs, sending forward (again as at present) eight clubs to the quarter-finals. The number competing would rise from 24 to 32.

This would not dilute the quality of the competition in any way. It would certainly add to its interest. Here are eight suggestions for addition: Bath, Brive, Connacht, Mont-de-Marsan, Pontypridd, Saracens, Stade Français, Wasps. Some might urge the inclusion of Ebbw Vale, Harlequins or Sale instead.

In any case, the new entrants would qualify in the same way as the present incumbents. Thank goodness, we have not so far heard any selfish talk from assorted Mr Moneybags about ring-fencing the Heineken Cup. To avoid further complication or necessity to learn new tricks – for one of the curses of modern rugby is that, usually for no very good reason, something changes every season – the group champions would be decided in the same way as they are now.

Last week's events have done nothing to shake my faith in Toulouse: if anything, the reverse. The other French teams who played the principal matches over here – Biarritz and Bourgoin against Northampton and Llanelli respectively – both suffered their share of bad luck.

Before going on to give one example of this, I should like to say something about the commentaries. I saw both games on television. At Franklin's Gardens the assumption of the BBC commentator was that his entire audience wanted Northampton to win and to win handsomely. The resident expert, or summariser, Jonathan Davies, was more judicious in his observations, though it was evident that he too wanted the Saints to come through victorious.

Let me make it clear – to avoid bad feeling or, worse, writs – that I am not accusing anybody of bias or a lack of professionalism. All I am saying is that both summariser and commentator made it abundantly clear that they wanted Northampton to win. Now, I did not. Why on earth should I? I have spent many happy days in Biarritz, but not a single day, happy or otherwise, in Northampton.

In the match at Stradey Park, by contrast, I wanted Llanelli to win. I have spent many days there, both in the town and at the ground, which were not so much happy or unhappy as part of my early life. I have also spent many happy days travelling in the area around Bourgoin in south-east France. But I still wanted Llanelli to win.

This is an illustration of where bias may lead you. I am referring, of course, to my own. For I thought the Eurosport commentator was less evidently keen for Llanelli to win on Friday than the BBC commentator was for Northampton on Saturday. I also thought the summariser, Tony Copsey, was most judicious, even though a former Llanelli player himself. He considered (and I agreed) that the wing Garan Evans did not score the try awarded to him as his feet were over the touchline when he grounded the ball.

The other interesting aspect of the competition is that, from commentaries and reports alike, we regard the Irish provinces – not just Ulster, but Leinster and Munster too – as our own native teams who are occasionally put down by the dastardly French, as Munster were by Perpignan. I am sticking to Toulouse, without ever forgetting the strength which the Zurich Premiership has nurtured in Gloucester, Leicester and Northampton.