Racing: Chance would really be a fine thing

FOR NOEL CHANCE, training has been a bit like standing in a bus queue. You wait all your life for a good horse, then two come along at once. After two decades in obscurity, Chance finds himself saddling a fancied runner in the King George VI Chase, jump racing's great Christmastide showpiece, for the second time in three years.

The first one, Mr Mulligan, was safe for second behind One Man when he came down at the last fence, but then went on to win the Gold Cup. The latest candidate, Looks Like Trouble, is rated better all round and is the one reckoned most likely to rattle reigning Cheltenham champion See More Business's cage at Kempton tomorrow.

If this is a tale of two horses, the pair who have thrust Chance into the spotlight could hardly be more different. Poor old Mr Mulligan - he's dead now - was, in the words of his owner, Michael Worcester, a "great orange thing with spots". He was a gawky, white-faced chestnut, chronically unsound, ill-tempered and a minute- by-minute challenge to his trainer's ability and patience.

Looks Like Trouble, by contrast, has hardly given a moment's anxiety since the day he arrived in Lambourn two years ago. A handsome bay, a noticeably light-footed galloper and jumper, he has not a bad bone in his body. "Getting Mr Mulligan fit was a nightmare," Chance said. "But this fella, he's an easy horse to train. If he wasn't so good we'd hardly know we had him in the yard.

"When we got him to the races, Mr Mulligan was a very good horse. But Looks Like Trouble is quicker. His races don't have to be a test of stamina. He can make it, or if there's a good pace on you can take a pull and sit behind. And he's such a well-balanced horse. He's a big horse, 16.3 hands, but he seems to glide over the ground."

Dublin-born, County Down-reared Chance, 48, spent his first 20 years as a trainer in Ireland. Before that he had been five years in New South Wales, having decamped to Australia in his late teens with pounds 6 in his pocket. Homesickness drew him back, but not before he had learned about keeping problem horses sound and punting astutely.

His break into the bigger league came when he was recruited to Lambourn in 1995 by Worcester but, despite having a Gold Cup on his CV, business swung lowish after the enforced retirement of his first "one good horse". The emergence of Looks Like Trouble has, though, crucially kept the roundabout spinning.

"His winning the Sun Alliance Chase meant we doubled the string," said Chance, "and I hope that he will continue to be a good advertisement. In Ireland I had to survive by buying and selling horses and judicious betting. When I was in Australia I learned that backing at big prices is the trick. I backed Mr Mulligan at 20-1 for the Gold Cup and Looks Like Trouble at 16-1 for the Sun Alliance, and I've already backed him at 50-1 for next year's Gold Cup."

Chance feels that Looks Like Trouble was never really given the credit he deserved at Cheltenham, his wide-margin victory being overshadowed by a serious injury to hot favourite Nick Dundee. "Yes, he was cruising when he fell," he said, "but it was a long way out and we will never know if he would have found much off the bridle. But mine does, and did, and was never going to stop up the hill."

On his first venture in senior company, Looks Like Trouble was sent straight into the deep end, taking on See More Business at Wetherby at the end of October. After matching strides with the Gold Cup winner and even outjumping him on occasions, the seven-year-old ran out of puff over the last two fences. A facile sharpener at Sandown was immediately prescribed. "Lack of match practice was the problem at Wetherby," said Chance, "so we had to go to Sandown. It wasn't part of the plan, but we won pounds 7,000 for a racecourse gallop, so I shouldn't complain.

"He had to win like that to have a chance with See More Business at Kempton - we're 5lb worse off than at Wetherby - but he's had only 11 races and is on an upward curve. We certainly respect the opposition but we're not quaking."

The recent move by Chance, his wife Mary and their two teenage girls to Saxon House Stables is perhaps a good omen, for it was once home to Mill House, whose legendary duels with Arkle were an inspiration to the trainer as a teenager. The place is regarded as a lucky yard, but then again with a name like Chance maybe you make your own fortune.