NFL 2019: Win total over and under tips for new season including New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns and Dallas Cowboys
The Browns are expected to surge with the addition of Odell Beckham Jr, but is the hype too much, too soon?
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Your support makes all the difference.The NFL season may still be just over two months away, but in this article we post our early pre-season team rankings. Our rankings are half art, half science, statistically based with a touch of experienced intuition taking into account off season player and coaching staff movements.
After crunching the numbers and taking player movement into account, our ratings are converted to a points advantage for each team. A team with a plus mark is above average, a minus mark below average with an average team earning a mark of 0.0.
So for example, the New England Patriots are rated first with a rating of +6.7 meaning they are considered 6.7 points better than an average NFL team. At the other end of the table, the Arizona Cardinals have a rating of -7.1.
If the Patriots were to play the Cardinals today, the Patriots would be considered 13.8 points to the better. If the game were played in New England, we would add the standard 3 points for home field advantage, giving us a predicted margin for the game of New England by 16.8 points. If the game were played in Arizona, we would add 3 points for home field advantage to the Cardinals, making the predicted margin New England by 10.8 points.
Once we have determined each teams rating, we can play out the entire NFL season schedule and come to our own expected win totals for each team. Of course, when there is only a matter of points separating a top half team from a bottom half team, the balance of good or just plain bad luck can determine much of a team’s fortunes across the span of an entire NFL season.
Below are the projected standings for each NFL division based on our projected win totals for the 2019 NFL season.
But we’re not so much concerned with how each team will perform this season. What we are interested in is how our expected win totals compare to those posted, in this case, at bet365.
So without further ado, here are our win total over under bets for every team this coming NFL season.
BEST BETS
Cleveland Browns
Projected wins: 8.3
Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds 5/6
Minnesota Vikings
Projected wins: 8.6
Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds 5/7
Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected wins: 8.6
Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds 10/13
Projected wins: 8.6
Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds 5/ 6
Arizona Cardinals
Projected wins: 4.7
Bet: Under 5.5 wins at odds 5/7
GOOD BETS
Washington Redskins
Projected wins: 6.4
Bet: Over 5.5 wins at odds ⅝
New York Jets
Projected wins: 7.5
Bet: Over 6.5 wins at odds 5/9
Buffalo Bills
Projected wins: 7.2
Bet: Over 6.5 wins at odds 10/13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected wins: 5.7
Bet: Under 6.5 wins at odds ⅚
Cincinnati Bengals
Projected wins: 5.6
Bet: Under 6.5 wins at odds ⅝
DECENT BETS
Los Angeles Rams
Projected wins: 11.1
Bet: Over 10.5 wins at odds 4/ 5
Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected wins: 7.7
Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 20/27
Chicago Bears
Projected wins: 8.6
Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds ⅚
Indianapolis Colts
Projected wins: 8.8
Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds Evens
Detroit Lions
Projected wins: 5.8
Bet: Under 6.5 wins at odds 20/27
ONLY FOR A FLUTTER...
Carolina Panthers
Projected wins: 8.0
Bet: Over 7.5 wins at odds 5/6
Tennessee Titans
Projected wins: 7.8
Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 4/6
Kansas City Chiefs
Projected wins: 10.9
Bet: Over 10.5 wins at odds Evens
New Orleans Saints
Projected wins: 11.0
Bet: Over 10.5 wins at odds Evens
Philadelphia Eagles
Projected wins: 9.7
Bet: Over 9.5 wins at odds 10/13
Los Angeles Chargers
Projected wins 9.1
Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds Evens
New York Giants
Projected wins: 6.6
Bet: Over 6.5 wins at odds 6/5
Atlanta Falcons
Projected wins: 8.1
Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 20/21
Baltimore Ravens
Projected wins: 8.2
Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 10/13
San Francisco 49ers
Projected wins: 8.0
Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 10/13
Houston Texans
Projected wins: 8.1
Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 10/11
Projected wins: 8.5
Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 6/5
Denver Broncos
Projected wins: 7.5
Bet: Over 7.5 wins at odds 6/5
Miami Dolphins
Projected wins: 5.3
Bet: Under 5.5 wins at odds 5/7
New England Patriots
Projected wins: 11.8
Bet: Over 11.5 wins at odds Evens
Oakland Raiders
Projected wins: 5.5
Bet: Under 5.5 wins at odds 11/10
Seattle Seahawks
Projected wins: 8.6
Bet: Over 8.5 wins at odds 20/21
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