Formula One: Forecast for Eifel Grand Prix conjures memories of dramatic day at Nurburgring 13 years ago

It was an inspired decision. As the other 21 drivers rounded the final corner of the formation lap to line up on the grid, Markus Winkelhock dived into the pits. 

The German, making his debut for the short-lived Spyker team that went on to become Racing Point today, had an inkling of what was coming at the Nurburgring. Pitting on the formation lap, he fitted the intermediate tyres and finally got his first Grand Prix under way, running in last after qualifying in last.

By the end of the second lap, he held a 19-second lead.

Sadly a safety car wiped out Winkelhock’s lead in the 2007 European Grand Prix before a hydraulics failure on lap 13 ended his race.

The weather that day at the Nurburgring was biblical. The dry weather witnessed at the start of the formation lap lasted fewer than half a lap, causing pandemonium as drivers struggled to remain on the track and out of each other's way. The two BMW Saubers in Nick Heidfeld and Robert Kubica managed to take one other out at the second corner, collecting Lewis Hamilton for good measure, while Nico Rosberg, Rubens Barrichello and Giancarlo Fisichella all found themselves sliding off the circuit as the rain worsened. Kimi Raikkonen, that year’s eventual champion, even managed to slide his way back out of the pit entry, forcing himself to run another wet lap on dry tyres and cost himself any chance of victory.

As the rain worsened, more drivers bit the bullet. Jenson Button, Hamilton and Rosberg, three future world champions, all saw their cars aquaplane off at the first corner, along with Scott Speed, Anthony Davidson and Vitantonio Liuzzi, all of them forced to retire bar Hamilton as he kept the engine running and eventually rejoined the race after being winched out of the gravel.

But what does this have to do with this weekend?

The forecast in the Eifel Mountains quickly triggers memories of that dramatic day 13 years ago. Friday’s running could prove a frustrating day of waiting, mainly because teams have just three sets of intermediate tyres and three sets of wet tyres for the entire weekend. With rain threatening both qualifying and the race, teams may well choose to save their allocations.

While that could result in a dull Friday programme, it could be the main ingredient to a dramatic weekend in what has already been an F1 season to spoil us. Yes, Hamilton is a country mile clear in the world championship battle, but there has been no shortage of excitement in 2020 when there could easily have been no racing to talk of. Silverstone, Monza, Mugello and Russia have all delivered entertaining races, and there is a strong expectation that the Nurburgring will follow suit.

That will play right into the hands of Valtteri Bottas – one of just six drivers who has past experience of racing an F1 car around the circuit in its last Grand Prix in 2013. Bottas needs as many uncertain factors to shake up the apple cart as possible, with an increase in unpredictability decreasing the chances of Hamilton disappearing into the distance, as he has done on six occasions this season already.

Having secured his second victory of the season last time out in Russia, nine races since his first win in the Austrian curtain-raiser, Bottas has the momentum behind him to take the fight to his Mercedes team-mate, who of course has the added pressure of trying once again to equal Michael Schumacher’s tally of 91 career victories this weekend. To do so on the German’s own soil would be particularly special for Hamilton, but with that comes an added weight on the shoulders that doesn’t always result in the Briton producing his best.

Closest rivals Red Bull, meanwhile, will be looking to move on from the unexpected announcement that Honda will be withdrawing at the end of next season, leaving Max Verstappen in limbo over who will be powering his 2022 campaign as he is tied down to the team until the end of the following campaign. Honda’s announcement, which came between the Russian and Eifel Grands Prix, caught everyone by surprise, including Red Bull and Toro Rosso, though Verstappen was able to joke about the matter on Thursday.

“I hope I am not going to end up like Fred Flintstone and pedal the car myself,” the Dutchman joked. Red Bull won’t be left high and dry, at least. Under F1’s regulations, Renault would be obliged to offer the use of their power units as the supplier with the fewest customer teams on the grid, with McLaren the final team to announce that they will no longer use the French manufacturer as they will return to Mercedes’ power next season following Red Bull’s severance in 2018.

Red Bull are free to try and negotiate a deal with Mercedes and Ferrari, but the prospect of the German marque powering their rivals seems unlikely, while they could attempt to lure another manufacturer into the sport. Should that all fail, trusty old Renault, which will by that point be renamed under the Alpine banner, will be their safety net.

Yet, given the acrimony that surrounded the end of their relationship two years ago, Flintstone power may prove their smoother option.