Analysis: Flagging public interest in predictable races leads to a radical plan to rev up Formula One

History could confirm Sunday's Japanese Grand Prix, the final round of the 2002 World Championship, as a landmark in Formula One. Motor racing's premier category and the public perception of the sport in general may never be the same again.

Only freakish circumstances can prevent Ferrari's 15th victory of the 17-race season at Suzuka and Michael Schumacher will doubtless wish to wind up his record-breaking tour with a champion's flourish after narrowly failing to engineer a dead heat with his team-mate, Rubens Barrichello, 12 days ago.

Some of the reaction to Schumacher's shenanigans at Indianapolis – where he slowed and attempted to cross the line at the same time as Barrichello – was hysterical. He was not demeaning the sport and he was not cheating the public. The race was over and it was a change from the now familiar follow-my-leader finish. If he had pulled off a joint win, that would have been another entry in his catalogue of extraordinary achievements.

The very fact that Schumacher and Ferrari have it in their power to manipulate the results of races is, of course, a cause for deep concern. Formula One is now embroiled in a debate likely to produce a fiercer contest than anything witnessed on the track these past seven months.

McLaren-Mercedes and Williams-BMW, the other two major teams, far from closing the gap to Ferrari, have fallen further back and the "show'' can no longer be presented as genuine competition.

There might at least be an edge to it if Ferrari's two drivers were closely matched, hated each other's guts and were allowed to race to the bitter end – the kind of rivalry Williams and McLaren endured in memorable years gone by – but Schumacher is usually too strong for Barrichello, and peace and harmony reign in the Italian camp.

The consequence is palpable apathy among sport's floating voters and viewers. Television figures are down, and teams and sponsors are becoming ever more twitchy. So are Formula One's leaders, Max Mosley, president of the FIA, the governing body, and his commercial partner, Bernie Ecclestone.

By mid-season, Formula One was stunned by the realisation that Ferrari's domination would propel them beyond the reach of any other team in 2003. Williams and McLaren have announced "radical'' changes to their cars in the hope of challenging Ferrari, but few are holding their breath.

Ferrari are still expected to have a significant advantage and, just as crucially, they have the reliability. Schumacher has completed every race for more than a year. And that's the other problem: Schumacher. Ferrari have the best driver and the 33-year-old German shows no sign of losing his appetite. Indeed, he has the incentive next season of eclipsing Juan Manuel Fangio's record of five world championships.

Mosley has never been slow to respond to public opinion or afraid to take on the teams. He is sometimes criticised for populist, knee-jerk reaction.

The raft of proposals Mosley and Ecclestone are putting forward this time met predictable resistance from the leading teams. Both men are intent on embarking on a lobbying mission this weekend. They need the support of the most influential organisations before a Formula One Commission meeting later this month.

By far the most revolutionary, and provocative, proposal is to end driver contracts with individual teams and have them rotate, car by car, race by race, through the season. That idea throws up the fascinating possibility of seeing Schumacher in a Minardi.

Such an extreme move would present complications in terms of sponsorship deals and is widely accepted as unworkable. It is thought to be the deliberately placed "joker'', that Mosley and Ecclestone will discard as a trade-off for their more serious suggestions.

One of those is to introduce a handicapping system of weight ballast. Penalties for success have helped to level the playing field in other forms of motor sport. Ecclestone stresses the intention is not to shackle Schumacher and Ferrari; rather to produce entertaining racing by reining in any driver who threatens to break away.

Mosley contends that to stand against change could be self-defeating and costly. "Sometimes you can find yourself in a position where you can keep your traditions but no one cares because they're not watching,'' he says.

His argument made scant impression on Ferrari, Williams and McLaren, who sternly defend the fundamental principle of meritocracy. Luca di Montezemolo, the Ferrari president, said: "It is totally crazy to think of things like penalising speed. We are against this because it is against the philosophy of the sport. There is a Formula One Commission to make decisions about this and I don't think they will accept it.''

Williams and McLaren would probably be beneficiaries of "success ballast" in the immediate future but they are led by racing purists for whom such a proposal is abhorrent.

Frank Williams said: "The risk is changing the sport into something that is not Formula One. Interfering with cars will not make racing better. We need more tracks with potential for overtaking if that is a concern.'' Martin Whitmarsh, managing director of McLaren, said: "Formula One has been at the pinnacle of motor sport. But if we start to tune it we're in danger of falsifying it in the minds of the public.''

A view from further down the pit lane gives a different slant. Eddie Jordan said: "Ballast is an excellent way of spicing up the sport. It's already been proved in touring cars , and it's a guaranteed way of levelling the playing field.''

No one denies the show requires a makeover. A proposal to improve the spectacle of qualifying, with aggregate times from four half-hour sessions, over Friday and Saturday, should have substantial backing. Restrictions on development, testing, engines and gearboxes, as well as new regulations on tyres, could be more contentious issues. There is a general recognition that costs need to be brought under control, but again the bigger teams are reluctant to stifle progress. This is, they remind us, supposed to be the cutting edge: the summit of motor sport.

But Ferrari stand up there alone, and anything other than a success in Japan on Sunday is unthinkable. As Mosley is warning the teams, if they think the public will keep getting up to watch this, they can think again.