BMW PGA Championship betting tips: McIlroy eyes bounce back performance

Rory McIlroy will be desperate to put the disappointment of the Irish Open behind him when he leads the field in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, which gets underway on Thursday (from 8.30 am Thursday, Sky Sports Golf).

The current world number three looked on course for victory at Royal County Down last weekend when leading by four shots at one point in Sunday’s final round. However, mistakes on 15 and 17 from the home favourite proved costly and allowed the fast-finishing Rasmus Hojgaard to snatch the title by one-shot.

McIlroy now joins the rest of the DP World Tour regulars in heading to Wentworth, where 12 months ago New Zealand’s Ryan Fox birdied the last to take the title in dramatic fashion. He edged out England’s Tyrrell Hatton and Aaron Rai on that occasion and two of those three will be in the mix this time around.

Last year, all 12 of Luke Donald’s Ryder Cup team arrived at Wentworth to fine-tune their preparations ahead of the biennial competition in Rome against the Americans.

Nine of those victorious European Ryder Cup players will play this week. Ludvig Aberg is missing due to injury, while LIV defectors Jon Rahm and Hatton, who won the tournament in 2020, will be competing in Dallas at the LIV Golf Team Championship season finale.

Former winners McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, and Danny Willett will be looking to add a second title, while Ryan Fox is seeking to become the first person since Donald in 2012 to defend the title.

Fox is an 80/1 outsider to repeat with betting sites, who, unsurprisingly, have placed McIlroy at the head of the market. The Northern Irishman will tee off as the heavy favourite at 6/1, with Tommy Fleetwood next best at 11/1 with some new betting sites.

McIlroy admitted after his latest near miss at the Irish Open that he’s got used to being the nearly man this year. The 25-year-old has gone close on several occasions, most memorably at the US Open and the Olympics, and faces a test of his mettle at Wentworth this week.

Whether he can bounce back so quickly remains to be seen, but in January he let slip the Dubai Invitational, only to capture his fourth Dubai Desert Classic title next time out. And of course, he won the 2011 US Open after his meltdown in the Masters just two months earlier.

This year hasn’t been a total hard luck story for McIlroy, who has three wins to his name across the PGA and DP World tours and he has gone well at Wentworth recently.

The four-time major winner won the BMW PGA Championship in 2014 and has five other top-10 finishes to his name at Wentworth, including finishing tied for second in 2022 and seventh last year.

Golf betting sites aren’t keen to take on McIlroy, judging by his ante-post price, and they might be right to be wary of a determined McIlroy this week.

BMW PGA Championship prediction 1: Rory McIlroy to win - 5/1 bet365

An Englishman has finished either first or second in four of the last five BMW PGA Championships so we’re expecting a decent showing from the home contingent at the DP World Tour’s headquarters.

Justin Rose could be one those to go well, despite him describing his form this year as “mixed”. However, he impressed at two of the four majors, including a tied-second finish at The Open at Royal Troon. This will be Rose’s first start on European soil since that tournament in July.

Rose has said the BMW PGA Championship is the one tournament he’d like to win, outside of the majors, and he’s gone close in the past, finishing as runner-up twice in 2007 and 2012.

He’s 30/1 on betting apps to go one better this time around, but we’re taking a slightly more cautious approach by backing him for a top-five finish. He’s finished in the top five in five of his 18 previous appearances and may improve upon that record this week.

BMW PGA Championship tips: Justin Rose to finish in the top 5 - 15/2 SpreadEx

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