Sailing: Race to Rio could be conclusive

The exit from not just the Southern Ocean but the southern hemisphere could provide the make-or-break in the Volvo Ocean Race as the fourth leg starts from Auckland tomorrow.

The exit from not just the Southern Ocean but the southern hemisphere could provide the make-or-break in the Volvo Ocean Race as the fourth leg starts from Auckland tomorrow. The 6,500 miles to Rio de Janeiro should take between three and four weeks and, even though the majority of the points will still be on offer in the nine-leg race by the time they reach Brazil, some will find their chances are over.

There has been the usual shuffle of crews on the eight boats, including the arrival of the winner of the last race, Paul Cayard. He joins Grant Dalton on Amer Sports One, still second overall despite some worries about gaps in its performance profile and persistent jibes from rivals that luck has played a greater part than judgement in their elevated status. Dalton can afford to shrug off such cavilling as he knows the boat is now up to speed having started the programme so late in the day, and, yes, he would prefer to see moderate rather than heavy airs during this leg.

That wish may not be granted, though, as so far the weather patterns in which the boats have had to race have tended to defy the text books. The crews have had to put in a lot more upwind work and that has been more punishing on them than on the boats. It is also taking its toll with more injuries and sickness and a longer recovery time during the stopovers.

If the organisers are to meet a general wish to condense the race time and reduce the number of costly stopovers, then next time the teams will need bigger race crew squads which they can rotate. Ross Field will, amazingly, not be missing from News Corp, which he now co-skippers with Britain's Jez Fanstone. He has delayed the expected surgery on his ribs and back and instead plumped for an epidural painkilling injection.

The win for the other British skipper, Neal McDonald, on Assa Abloy in the last leg has reinvigorated a campaign that seemed all too capable of tripping itself up – including firing the previous skipper, Roy Heiner, in Cape Town at the end of the first leg. Neal is in the top four and another solid result would put him in striking range for the second half of the race. The betting man would still be feeling comfortable with the overall leader John Kostecki, whose illbruck campaign continues to run smoothly. But two boats in particular, Gunnar Krantz's SEB and Knut Frostad's djuice, need to settle early if they are to reverse the two low scores on the first three legs.

The all-woman crew of Amer Sports Too will perhaps welcome the exit from the Southern Ocean, where the additional physical strength of the men, even though the women have an extra body with 13 crew, allows them to push harder.

If the women can be accused of making discretion the better part of valour, it also makes sense not to have the boat losing valuable miles just because of a gung-ho rush of blood to the head. Still, the race to be first around one of the world's most notorious capes will be intense and unrelenting.