Racing: Ratings folly as Hawk Wing is elevated above Falbrav

It is a game of opinion, a fact that was well developed in the British Horse Racing Board's first Flat racing awards ceremony yesterday. The official grandees of the handicapping panel made Hawk Wing both the champion miler and the champion older male horse on the weak evidence of the Irish horse's win in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury back several weather seasons ago. Pish.

They at least could not extend this folly to the overall champion category which went to the globetrotting excellence of Luca Cumani's Falbrav. For men who are meant to make sense of the statistical show it was a poor effort.

Paint ran out for the handicappers back in mid-May when Hawk Wing's wide-margin victory in the Lockinge was greeted with such enthusiasm that you could imagine he had ridden into town on a donkey. Having greeted the equine messiah, however, officialdom found little room with which to manoeuvre. They were in a corner.

The result was an aberration, yet those with the slide rules, with their tape measures for pounds and lengths, have not felt able to acknowledge that truth.

Thus we have to believe that had not injury curtailed Hawk Wing's career, he would be able to give a horrible hiding to Falbrav giving him weight. It is a good job they are handicappers and not bookmakers, otherwise several families would have enjoyed a mean Christmas.

It is a weakness of racing's benchmark figures that they deal almost exclusively with figures. Feel and impression are denied. The reality is that Hawk Wing beat the unfit and the unsuited in a race designed for him.

Falbrav may not even have been the best horse for general consumption during the season but at least his efforts included, as the rules dictate, a quality run in Britain. We must remember he was twice beaten by Hawk Wing's stablemate High Chaparral, who himself has a Derby victory over his supposed boxmate on the record.

The Irish Turf Club handicapper, Garry O'Gorman, was in the circled wagons which also sent out a missive defending the decision to allot a rating of 133 to Hawk Wing. "I don't think he can be crabbed for what he did as a three-year-old when the Derby probably bottomed him for the rest of the year," he said. "Obviously he wasn't the same at Ascot either, because of injury. But it is quite hard to fault his Newbury performance unless you conclude that every other horse ran below-par.

"At first, we gave Hawk Wing a provisional rating of 138 on the strength of Where Or When being on 123 for winning the QEII as a three-year-old. As the season went on, it did begin to seem that we had Where Or When on slightly too high a mark and the best he ran to as a four-year-old was 115.

"Is it just possible that the manner of Hawk Wing's victory, where he ground his rivals into the ground from the front, forced them all to run badly? If it was a one-off performance - a total freak - then maybe a mark of 133 flatters him. But if you are from the second school of thought then 133 is actually a very conservative rating given the way in which he won."

The conservative view still puts Hawk Wing a pound clear of Dalakhani, the emphatic victor in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, and, after the laughter subsides from that judgement, we have to consider the official rating of the two-year-olds.

For those leaning towards an outlandish result there was a messy fudge for which animal should be crowned champion juvenile. In the end it was declared a three-way dead-heat between Three Valleys, Lucky Story and Milk It Mick. It would be neat to see that result replicated on the racecourse.

The two-year-old handicapper, Matthew Tester, suggested where his real preference lay when he opined that Three Valleys might still prove his wide-margin success in the Coventry Stakes to be no one-off. "The performance that I saw that day was jaw-dropping," he said. "I had hoped to see him go through the season without getting beaten after that.

"I think there is every chance that had he stayed fit and healthy through the season then he would have achieved a better rating than he did."

2,000 GUINEAS (1 May) Coral: 9-4 One Cool Cat, 6-1 Grey Swallow, 10-1 Three Valleys, Lucky Story, 14-1 Pearl Of Love, Bago, 16-1 Milk It Mick, 20-1 Snow Ridge, 25-1 Akimbo, Auditorium.

1,000 GUINEAS (2 May) Coral: 7-1 Red Bloom, 8-1 Denebola, 9-1 Carry On Katie, 10-1 Attraction, Cairns, 16-1 Green Noon, Secret Charm, 20-1 Majestic Desert, Badminton, Punctilious, Sundrop, Snow Goose, 25-1 Marching West, Much Faster, Necklace.

DERBY (5 June) Coral: 10-1 American Post, Yeats, 12-1 Grey Swallow, 14-1 Snow Ridge, 16-1 Bago, 20-1 Magritte, 25-1 Lucky Story, 33-1 Let The Lion Roar, Duke Of Venice, Antonius Pius, Akimbo, Moscow Ballet, Wolfe Tone.

INTERNATIONAL CLASSIFICATIONS

TOP 20 TWO-YEAR-OLDS:

Horse, Trainer Rating

Bago J Pease (Fr) 121
Attraction M Johnston 119
Grey Swallow D Weld (Irl) 119
Lucky Story M Johnston 118
Milk It Mick J Osborne 118
One Cool Cat A P O'Brien (Irl) 118
Three Valleys R Charlton 118
American Post C Head-Maarek (Fr) 117
Whipper R Collet (Fr) 117
Majestic Missile W Haggas 116
Balmont J Noseda 115
Haafhd B Hills 115
Wathab K Prendergast (Irl) 115
Bachelor Duke J Toller 114
Denebola P Bary (Fr) 114
Fokine B Hills 114
Holborn M Channon 114
Old Deuteronomy A P O'Brien (Irl) 114
Pearl Of Love M Johnston 114
Voix Du Nord D Smaga (Fr) 114

TOP 20 THREE-YEAR-OLDS:

Horse, Trainer Rating
Dalakhani A de Royer Dupré (Fr) 132
Alamshar J Oxx (Irl) 131
Oasis Dream J Gosden 125
Dai Jin A Schutz (Ger) 122
Empire Maker R Frankel (US) 122
Funny Cide B Tagg (US) 122
Kris Kin Sir M Stoute 122
Doyen A Fabre (Fr) 121
Magistretti N Callaghan 121
Zafeen M Channon 121
Cajun Beat S Margolis (US) 120
Peace Rules R Frankel (US) 120
Roosevelt D Oughton (HK) 120
Ten Most Wanted W Dollase (US) 120
Trade Fair R Charlton 120
Dynever C Clement (US) 119
The Great Gatsby A P O'Brien (Irl) 119
Kalaman Sir M Stoute 119
L'Ancresse A P O'Brien (Irl) 119
Vespone N Clement (Fr) 119

TOP 20 FOUR-YEAR-OLDS & UPWARDS

Horse, Trainer Rating
Hawk Wing A O'Brien (Irl) 133
Mubtaker M Tregoning 130
Candy Ride R McNally (US) 127
Falbrav L Cumani 127
High Chaparral A P O'Brien (Irl) 127
Johar R Mandella (US) 127
Mineshaft N Howard (US) 127
Moon Ballad Saeed bin Suroor 126
Dubai Destination Saeed bin Suroor 125
Nayef M Tregoning 125
Sulamani Saeed Bin Suroor 125
Pleasantly Perfect R Mandella (US) 124
Symboli Kris S K Fujisawa (Japan) 124
Ange Gabriel E Libaud (Fr) 123
Azeri L de Seroux (US) 123
Tap Dance City S Sasaki (Japan) 123
Congaree B Baffert (US) 122
Good Journey W Dollase (US) 122
Medaglia D'Oro R Frankel (US) 122
Storming Home N Drysdale (US) 122