UFC 260: Miocic vs Ngannou II – What’s changed?

The narrative when Stipe Miocic faced Francis Ngannou at UFC 220 was straightforward.

In one corner was Miocic, arguably the greatest heavyweight in UFC – if not MMA – history. 

In the other corner was Ngannou, the man who was probably going to decapitate arguably the greatest heavyweight in UFC – if not MMA – history.

It proved a naive assumption, with champion Miocic neutralising his challenger’s hellish power over the course of five rounds, dominating the French-Cameroonian with his wrestling to achieve a unanimous decision victory – 50-44 on all three judges’ scorecards.

Of note, however, is that Miocic did not purely win by evading Ngannou’s devastating strikes. The part-time firefighter was caught on a number of occasions, but his chin withstood the power of ‘The Predator’, while elsewhere the champion displayed fine footwork to outmanoeuvre his challenger, tire him, take him down and control him with grappling and ground strikes.

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So, why would the pair’s rematch at UFC 260 this weekend play out any differently? Will it, even?

To attempt to answer that question, it’s useful to evaluate the performances of both Miocic and Ngannou in the time since their last meeting.

There is an argument that Miocic (20-3) has gotten even better since that fight, strengthening his claim to the title of greatest heavyweight in UFC history. In all three of his bouts since beating Ngannou, Miocic faced the now retired former Olympian and former UFC light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier. In their first clash in July 2018, Cormier secured a knockout victory late in the first round to join the short list of dual-weight champions in the company’s history. In the rematch 13 months later, Miocic exhibited tremendous heart and tactical awareness to adapt as the fight went on, overcoming early difficulties to knock out Cormier late in the fourth frame and regain the heavyweight gold. The Americans completed their trilogy in August last year, with Miocic emerging victorious on points after a five-round war.

The only downside from that trilogy is that it meant we’ve only been able to see Miocic reacting to the skillset of one opponent – which is hardly the champion’s fault.

There is a similarity there to the one negative from Ngannou’s (15-3) blistering run, which he has put together since losing the fight after his defeat by Miocic.

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That one-sided loss shattered the 34-year-old’s confidence, as evidenced when he failed to engage at all with Derrick Lewis in a decision defeat six months after the Miocic fight, but the French-Cameroonian has since recorded four-straight wins via first-round KO. The afore-mentioned negative from that outstanding statistic, however, is that it has meant it is impossible to know how much Ngannou has improved in the area that cost him against Miocic last time – his wrestling. It feels almost unfair to brand that problematic, but it is a genuine drawback from demolishing opponents so quickly and so consistently.

Yet, one thing we have learnt about Ngannou is that he has become more patient. And, yes, that might seem a strange thing to say about a fighter who has still managed to spend just two minutes and 42 seconds in the Octagon across his last four contests (45 seconds against Curtis Blaydes, 26 against Cain Velasquez, 1:11 against Junior dos Santos, and 20 seconds against Jairzinho Rozenstruik). It is true, however, that Ngannou is less determined to enter with winging punches than he was before, with the exception coming in his fight against Rozenstruik.

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His footwork has also improved, with the 34-year-old looking remarkably light on his feet for a heavyweight, allowing smoother and quicker entries and exits from exchanges. That attribute will likely be augmented in the UFC’s Apex institute in Las Vegas this weekend – given the smaller-sized Octagon – and it will be interesting to see it on show against Miocic, as well as to see how well Miocic’s chin holds up this time around.

The champion is now 38 and has never had a ‘weak chin’, but there is a possibility that at his slightly advanced age – though it is still not especially old for a heavyweight – he is less able to withstand the shots he absorbed from Ngannou last time around. And if the challenger is able to use his improved patience to pick better openings to attack, and if he is able to use his improved footwork to better exploit those openings, will Miocic be able to survive those types of strikes?

That last question and the unknown level of Ngannou’s wrestling will be key to determining whether or not this fight plays out differently to the pair’s previous clash.

All will likely become clear within the first two minutes of the main event at UFC 260 this Saturday.