The missing piece of Arsenal’s title bid

The cause of the frenzy happened to be Mohamed Elneny’s most noticeable contribution in weeks. The Arsenal midfielder’s Instagram story showed William Saliba back in the gym, peddling on an exercise bike and pointing to his head. Apart from that, the clip revealed nothing that couldn’t otherwise be seen, but it spread on social media regardless, generating an excited reaction from a fan base desperate to claw onto any sort of positive news ahead of the trip to Manchester City. This was one: Saliba was back, and everything was going to be fine.

And then it wasn’t. First Saliba could not be seen in Arsenal’s training photos ahead of facing Southampton last week, then Mikel Arteta delivered the news. "He is not progressing as quick as we hoped,” Arteta admitted. It all but confirmed that Saliba was out of Arsenal’s biggest Premier League game in 19 years. While Arteta did not want to make predictions, there is now doubt over whether he will play again this season as well. “We are finished,” came one reply. “Goodbye title,” came another, even if Twitter is hardly the place if you are looking to find measured reactions.

That is especially true in such fraught times. It’s late April. Arsenal are wobbling in the title race, being hunted down by this Manchester City - the maniacal figures of Pep Guardiola and Erling Haaland appearing anywhere and everywhere, but especially in the rear-view mirror. Arsenal’s Saliba episode, where a cycle of delight and despair greeted even the most ambiguous of updates, can perhaps be taken to gauge how Arsenal’s fans are dealing with it all. It is also illustrative of how important the 22-year-old has become.

The notion that Saliba could swing the title race has grown over the five games he has been absent. Until injuring his back in Arsenal’s Europa League exit to Sporting Lisbon, the centre-back had started every Premier League fixture this season alongside Gabriel Magalhaes. Without Saliba, Arsenal have failed to keep a clean sheet. They have conceded seven goals in the last three games, dropping costly points at each turn. The 2-2 draws at Liverpool and West Ham displayed frailties and a defensive line either exposed by the absence of Saliba’s pace, or forced to drop from its usual high mark to account for it. Then there was Friday night against Southampton.

None of which is particularly fair on Rob Holding, who has been thrust into the title race but rather signifies the drop-off that has been left by Saliba. West Ham picked on it at the London Stadium, with Michail Antonio targeting Holding’s side. Saliba is not just quicker on the ground than Holding, but also more dominant in the air and better on the ball. Without him, Arsenal have been less precise, both in how they regain possession and how they build from deep. Gabriel, who by age was the senior centre back alongside Saliba, has looked more erratic and frayed without the Frenchman.

Arsenal have dealt with injuries this season but until now Arteta’s side have rarely allowed them to seem so significant. Back in December, it was assumed that the knee injury Gabriel Jesus suffered at the World Cup would be the moment Arsenal’s title race began to run out of steam. They coped admirably well without him, first with Eddie Nketiah leading the line, then with the timely addition of Leandro Trossard. Thomas Partey and Oleksandr Zinchenko have missed key games where Arsenal haven’t quite looked the same team, but neither’s absence generated the same amount of feverishness as Saliba’s has.

This, too, for a player who is still playing in his first Premier League season and is just as inexperienced a head in situations like the title race as the majority of the Arsenal squad. Saliba has had an excellent season yet has struggled at times when teams have played directly to a forward target, an approach Guardiola replicated to considerable success with Haaland in the first meeting of the title rivals at the Emirates. Arsenal needed Saliba to return in time and facing Haaland with Holding, or anyone for that matter, is a frightening prospect.

So what does Arteta do? Is it time to twist? Arsenal could shift systems, perhaps moving Ben White or Thomas Partey closer to Holding and the positions Haaland likes to pull onto.

Despite what some may say, Arsenal finishing second would not be a disaster and if City beat them to the title they would not have thrown the league away by any sensible estimations. But this is what Arsenal face: they built their lead with Saliba, and now must hold it knowing there’s a chance he may not play again this season. It means they cling onto him even more than before.