Life after Bale: Rob Page faces problems trying to reinvent Wales following golden generation

It could prove a case of diminishing returns. Semi-finalists in Euro 2016, a team who played in the knockout stages of Euro 2020, Wales might not reach Euro 2024. And if there is a tendency to draw sweeping conclusions from relatively few games which can hinge on small number of defining incidents, that is the nature of international football, with its two-year cycles, its stop-start fixture lists, its tournaments where teams are either invited or excluded.

Wales know it better than most. They spent more than half a century sat at home when the great and good convened for World Cups and European Championships. They played in one major tournament in their first 140 years, three in the next seven. Now they have a play-off to make it four in just over eight, to make them seem regulars on the continental – if not necessarily the global – stage. Lose, however, whether to Finland, Iceland or Ukraine in a semi-final or Poland or Estonia in the final, and a different verdict may be reached.

Because perhaps the modern-day golden age of Wales is over. There was always the risk it finished with its most iconic player; a draw against Turkey on a day when Wales could have booked their place in Euro 2024 brought reminders of Gareth Bale dragging Wales past first Austria and then Ukraine by force of personality to earn them their place in the 2022 World Cup. Harry Wilson assumed a talismanic role in last month’s seminal win over Croatia and was influential against Turkey, without the Bale-esque status as the hero. But then comparisons with Bale are automatically unfair; perhaps comparisons with the class of 2016 are too.

There was a realism to Robert Page. “We are not a nation currently that is automatically going to get the top two,” the manager said. Wales were the second seeds in Group D and finished third but Page was not making excuses. The seeding stems from their past, from the achievements of Wales’ 21st-century golden generation. Few of them remain. “Let’s manage expectations,” Page counselled. “We are a team that is evolving. We have played the last two camps without [injured captain] Aaron [Ramsey] and Gareth Bale and Joe Allen.” Allen, like Bale, retired after the World Cup. Wales have had to reinvent themselves.

There have been times when results under Page have flatlined, when there are reasons to wonder if there is only so long a former Port Vale and Northampton manager can prosper on the international stage. Yet he was entitled to look at the final standings, see Wales on 12 and say: “The points tally is probably not far off what we expected.” The disappointment was the home defeat to Armenia: yet the victory against Croatia balanced it out. Wales underachieved, then overachieved. They probably produced too few high-class performances to merit any better, and they could lament two poor showings against Armenia, but Page was entitled to reference their past.

The only Welsh teams to reach major tournaments have had the greats: John Charles and Cliff Jones in the 1950s, Bale and Ramsey in the 21st century. Like Charles, Ramsey has Juventus and Cardiff on his CV but he is now a Championship player.

Wales now offer an illustration of the issues the smaller nations face: they have relatively meagre resources, they rely on club managers to pick their players and they are searching for regular match-winners. Only four of Page’s 23-man squad have started more than three Premier League games this season: Tom Lockyer and Connor Roberts for arguably the division’s two weakest teams, plus Wilson, who had a decisive impact against Croatia, and Brennan Johnson, who threatened to take on a similar mantle against Turkey. Kieffer Moore has been a focal point for Wales but, limited to 83 minutes of top-flight football this season, he was not deemed fit to start twice in four days.

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His replacement, Johnson, brought speed; it may help Wales find a different way of playing, just as they look to forge a new identity. They used to build around a static Bale, looking for a trade-off for his immobility in moments of brilliance. Now there is more of a team of equals, with a common ethos. Wales harried Turkey, playing with pace and intensity.

“We are a team in progress,” said Page, and if the alternative conclusion is that they are a side in regression, there is an area where they have moved on and improved. Ethan Ampadu was arguably Wales’ best player in the World Cup but he had scant support in the middle of midfield. Jordan James’s international debut came in Croatia at the start of this qualifying campaign: he ends it as an automatic choice, a rising star and a player who was terrific against Turkey. “JJ went to another level tonight,” said Page.

Wales reached their highest level in the recent past, but with an extraordinary talent backed up by a core of high-level performers. Now they are at a crossroads, seeing the cautionary tale of the Republic of Ireland, looking instead to be Scotland, to find a way to reach a European Championships without a world-class attacker. They know better than most that exile from tournaments can seem permanent, that teams can veer between cruel near misses and desperate campaigns with the same outcome. Qualifying without a superstar would be a unique achievement in their history. Not qualifying at all, however, could take them back to the wilderness years and end an era.