Thomas Tuchel, the dead man walking towards a historic Champions League three-peat

It was a nine-year low, leaving Bayern Munich destined to plummet to depths they had not experienced at the end of a season for 12 years. When Thomas Tuchel’s departure was announced, they had just lost three consecutive games, for the first time since 2015. Bundesliga losses to Bayer Leverkusen and Heidenheim, one emphatic against the league leaders, the other embarrassing against relative minnows, rendered it a formality that, for the first time since 2012, Bayern would not be champions. Sandwiched by them the other setback in a disastrous eight days was 1-0 to Lazio. To compound a wretched season, Bayern risked missing out of the Champions League quarter-finals, something they had only done once since 2011.

Tuchel, Bayern said in February, would stay until the end of the season. The temptation was to wonder if he would make it that far. Now an alternative exit feels feasible. Instead of becoming another Jurgen Klinsmann, a big name to flounder amid the unique pressures of Sabener Strasse, Tuchel may yet emulate Jupp Heynckes, conquering Europe in his final act. The difference now is that, whereas in 2013 Bayern had already lined up Pep Guardiola, the most coveted manager in the world, now their search for Tuchel’s successor looks increasingly desperate. It won’t be Xabi Alonso or Julian Nagelsmann, who had each seemed the top target. Ralf Rangnick is the favourite but, as Bayern fans reflected in a petition and a presumably unsuccessful attempt to ensure Tuchel stays, it probably won’t be anyone with his pedigree.

But then that could be because, in 10 days, he will have a unique achievement. For now, Tuchel is in a select group of nine to coach two clubs in a Champions League or European Cup final; eliminate another of them, Carlo Ancelotti and Real Madrid, and he will become the first to lead three in the biggest club game in the world. And if they come within five seasons at three clubs who all chose to dispense with his services, perhaps it says something about a manager who has come to seem a short-termist, succeeding and falling out with people. Except that, at Bayern, he may have done it the other way around.

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All of which represents a curiosity but a twist on a theme. Tuchel transformed one season after his arrival, culminating in a Champions League final victory; now he may do likewise, but when the winter managerial change was the announcement he would leave. He inherited a Chelsea side ninth in the Premier League and won the Champions League with extraordinary defensive solidity. Thus far, the Bayern revival has only encompassed three meaningful matches – with the Bundesliga gone, it matters neither that they lost to lowly Heidenheim nor that they won 5-1 away at Union Berlin – but a first-leg deficit was overcome in emphatic fashion in a 3-0 victory over Lazio. If Bayern may have begun as underdogs against Arsenal in the quarter-final, they deservedly eliminated them. Now once again, Bayern are the outsiders against Real, this time denied home advantage in the second leg. But Tuchel’s Chelsea beat them in the 2021 semi-finals and almost knocked them out again in the 2022 quarter-finals, winning the game at the Bernabeu.

The latter came with Chelsea in limbo, with Roman Abramovich sanctioned, the club’s future in doubt and no actual owner; Tuchel seemed happier then than reporting to Todd Boehly. But perhaps a sense of uncertainty can bring the best from him. Now, with no need to think about next season, or to placate, he is liberated to play Joshua Kimmich at right-back, to bench Dayot Upamecano and Kim Min-Jae so Eric Dier can start.

He can leave other issues for his successor to resolve. Very different things can be true: there are underlying problems at Bayern and they need an overhaul but it is still one of the best squads in Europe. Tuchel wanted more signings last summer, from Joao Palhinha to Declan Rice via Scott McTominay, but he could still pay £86m for the 30-year-old Harry Kane and got Kim, Serie A’s best defender in 2022-23.

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Which, when Leverkusen surged ahead of Bayern, made Tuchel look the man who was given the golden ticket and ripped it up. He won the Bundesliga by default last season, with Borussia Dortmund’s final-day implosion. The suggestion was that his next job would have to be at a lower level. Champions League winner he remains, but Tuchel’s star seemed to have waned, in part because of the charisma that gives him a capacity to cause his own downfall. Some boardrooms may prefer calmer characters; Tuchel can be wonderfully eloquent, but far too cutting in his comments for many a powerbroker.

But the Champions League has offered an advertisement for his brilliance before: while Luis Enrique may emulate him now, no other manager has taken Paris Saint-Germain to a final. While he won it with Chelsea, their fortunes since sacking him have been disastrous. In a summer that could bring the biggest shake-up of coaches at the elite clubs in years, Tuchel has risked looking the odd man out in the game of managerial musical chairs. Barcelona and Liverpool have already made their decisions; Bayern, Manchester United, AC Milan, Napoli, Lazio, Feyenoord and Ajax will or could welcome a new face to the dugout. Now Bayern’s progress may represent bad news for the second-rank clubs who may have wondered if Tuchel would settle for a drop in status. Instead, a double header at the Allianz Arena and the Bernabeu is a reminder of a stage that seems to suit him. It would have seemed utterly improbable when Bayern chose to dispense with Tuchel but the dead man walking could be the dead man winning the Champions League.