Tottenham must learn from the lessons of Arsenal’s past to avoid sharing their fate

Out of the League Cup on Thursday, out of the FA Cup on Sunday, Tottenham Hotspur’s job this week is to escape a negative spiral, and the bad example set across north London eight years ago when an Arsenal team full of promise collapsed in the space of a few weeks, separating before they ever won anything together.

Spurs host Watford and Newcastle United at Wembley this week, needing to regain some stability and momentum at a difficult time. Their number of competitions has halved from four to two, piling the pressure on the two tournaments that they are in. Stumble in the league this week and the threat posed to their Champions League qualification feels more real. The annual gravity-defiance that is Spurs’ league position might finally come back down to earth.

That is the pressure that Spurs are under on Wednesday night. Speaking after the Palace defeat, Erik Lamela admitted that Spurs have to respond in the strongest possible manner this week. “We need to be focused on the Premier League and Champions League now,” Lamela said. “It’s time to start winning games. On Wednesday we have another game, it’s very important for us. Every game will be very important until the end of the season.”

There is more pressure on Spurs’ European run too, now that they are out of the cups. And there is also the fear that if they welcome Borussia Dortmund after a few more bad results at Wembley, still struggling to find a way to score without Alli and Kane, then that negative energy might start to consume them. And their bad form could generate a momentum all of its own.

Because back in 2011 a young and promising Arsenal team was in a similar position. They were full of talent that had not won a trophy together yet, but played as if their moment was still just around the corner. And in February of that season they were well set, just one point behind league leaders Manchester United, through to the League Cup final, and in the Champions League last-16, where they famously beat Barcelona 2-1 in the first leg.

And then, in the space a few days, their whole season collapsed. Arsenal lost the League Cup final to a farcical last-minute Obafemi Martins goal, which tanked their form in the Premier League. The following week they lost 3-1 in the Nou Camp, crashing out of the Champions League, and three days after that they lost to a second-string Manchester United side to go out of the Fa Cup. From four competitions to one in less than three weeks. By this point their negative spiral was irresistible and they could do nothing to get out of it.

The title challenge collapsed like a house of cards, as the Arsenal players did not know how to deal with the relentless disappointment. First they drew with West Brom, then at home with Blackburn. Then Arsenal drew home to Liverpool, even after Robin van Persie had put them 1-0 up from the penalty spot in the 98th minute. When Dirk Kuyt scored a second penalty after 102 minutes, Arsenal’s season was effectively over. They finished back in fourth place, having won just two of their last 11 league games.

It was a run that sucked any sense of optimism out of the club. And that convinced their best young players that they would never fulfil their ambitions to win trophies at Arsenal, and that they needed to leave. Cesc Fabregas, their captain and leader, went back to Barcelona that summer. Samir Nasri went to Manchester City, and so did Gael Clichy. Robin van Persie only gave them one more season. Arsenal had to rebuild again, and while they have won the FA Cup three times since then, they have not looked as challenging in the Premier League since.

Of course the comparison is not perfect: Tottenham have not even opened the expensive new stadium that they are now paying for. More to the point, they are far better than Arsenal have ever been at keeping their top players to contracts. That is why the Christian Eriksen and Toby Alderweireld situations stand out, because it is the type of thing that is meant to happen to Arsenal, not Spurs. They are unlikely to face a 2011-style exodus this summer, no matter what happens next month.

But it is still a negative lesson, of what can happen to a promising young team when results turn against them, and the prospects for a season narrow faster than anyone expected. That is why it is so important to regain their footing this week. “This team, we know each other very well, a lot of times we were in this situation,” Lamela said. “The team was always good and responded. I think it’s a difficult period, to lose two games in a row. I think the next game we have to win to get back to winning ways.”