Premier League relegation: Permutations that could see Aston Villa, Bournemouth or Watford join Norwich

Norwich City are already relegated from the Premier League—and the final week of the season will decide which two teams join them.

Aston Villa, Bournemouth and Watford are the teams battling to avoid the drop into the Championship, after Brighton secured their survival this week and West Ham United have all but done the same.

Two matches on Tuesday night could go a long way toward deciding who goes down, or even spell the end for one of the sides if results go against them.

Watford host Manchester City at 6pm, before Villa play at home to Arsenal at 8.15pm.

Here are all the permutations and possibilities to define the relegation battle.

In a way, Watford have the most straight-forward task: win, and be 99 per cent assured to stay up. Of course, it’s also the most difficult task, given they face Pep Guardiola’s City.

Victory would put them on 37 points, six ahead of Villa who would have two games to play.

If Watford manage to take even a point against City, Bournemouth will be relegated at full-time on Tuesday evening.

With a Watford draw, Aston Villa will go down if they lose later in the evening; with a Watford win, Villa are down if they don’t win their own game.

Either way, if Watford fans are celebrating a positive result tonight, at least one other set of fans won’t be.

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A Watford win and a Villa win will take the battle for the last relegation place and survival to the final day of the season, where Dean Smith’s team will have to beat an all-but-safe West Ham and hope Watford lose to Arsenal—and a swing in goal difference will have to be overcome, too.

That’s currently at four, in favour of the Hornets, but of course it will change depending on the scorelines on Tuesday night.

If both win by the same score on Tuesday, Villa will stay up with a 2-0 weekend win of their own while Watford lose 2-0, as Villa have scored more goals.

By the same token, if Watford and Villa both lose on Tuesday, it’ll still go to the last day—but Bournemouth will also be back in the mix and goal difference will have a huge role to play, so losing by one instead of three or four might be as massive as winning a point.

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Let’s face it, Manchester City are a goalscoring machine when they get going and Watford will be fearful of taking a hammering. If Watford lose in the early game, Villa could feasibly be out of the relegation zone by tonight, rather than in the Championship.

Any kind of win for Villa, plus a Watford loss big enough to turn around that four-goal swing, will put Watford in the bottom three on goal difference.

That again sends it to the final day of the season...and again keeps Bournemouth clinging to their own feint hopes of survival.

So how do the Cherries stay up? Simply put, they need to hope they win their last game of the season, moving them to 34 points, and that Watford don’t pick up a single point from their last two.

Villa can win one of theirs, but not take more than three points in total, if Bournemouth are to have a chance.

Even then, they also need a goal difference improvement against both sides, being four worse off than Watford and level with Villa—but having scored two fewer so far.