Champions League race: Permutations to decide if Chelsea, Manchester United or Leicester get top four

Two teams from three will earn top-four spots on the final day

Karl Matchett
Friday 24 July 2020 09:36 EDT
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Fireworks and flares set off at Anfield as Liverpool lift the Premier League trophy

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The fight for a top-four finish in the Premier League has come down to the final day, with three teams still hopeful of joining Liverpool and Manchester City in next season's Champions League.

Manchester United currently occupy third and Chelsea fourth, but Leicester City still harbour hopes of earning a place and know they have their fate in their own hands, to an extent.

All three teams are within a point of each other, Leicester being one adrift of the other two.

Matters are made all the more intriguing by the fact the Foxes host the Red Devils on Sunday, with Chelsea at home to sixth-place Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Here are all the permutations which could see any of the three sides seal the remaining top-four spots.

Mount celebrates as De Gea comes to terms with his howler
Mount celebrates as De Gea comes to terms with his howler (2020 Pool)

Odds in Chelsea's favour

They are not there yet, but Frank Lampard's side have several outcomes on Sunday which could see them get a top-four finish.

First and foremost, if they don't lose, they are in.

A point pushes them to 64 and since Leicester and United can't both earn two points in the same game, they'd be guaranteed to finish ahead of one and thus a draw or win means a Champions League spot would be theirs.

But Chelsea can also still qualify with a defeat if either Leicester also lose—or if United lose by more than a 15-goal swing. We can probably ignore that option, even if David de Gea has a particularly bad day.

So, if United win and Chelsea lose, Lampard's team still make it. If Chelsea lose and Leicester draw or win, Chelsea are fifth on goal difference or points, respectively.

KP Stadium shoot-out

Given they had a big lead back in June, Leicester might be feeling down about the situation - but back in August, give them a chance to win on the last day and get a top-four spot and they'd have absolutely taken up the offer.

So here, the permutations are reasonably straight-forward: If United win, they and Chelsea will be top four, Leicester fifth.

If Leicester win, they will be in the top four and so too will be Chelsea if they take a point or better; if they lose to Wolves, United still make it.

But if Leicester and United draw, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's team will definitely be in and the Foxes' hopes lie with Wolves beating Chelsea.

The scoreline at the King Power Stadium largely won't matter in terms of goal difference—only the results and points earned across each of the two games will impact the race, with Chelsea's goal difference already being significantly inferior.

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