Why your Premier League club's season could be decided in the next 11 games

There have been 11 rounds of fixtures, or 'gameweeks' as the Premier League is fond of calling them, so far this season; 110 games played over 87 days since Arsenal's last-gasp win over Leicester City on 11 August opened the new campaign. As far as scheduling goes in English football, that is about as sane as it gets, but the next few weeks and months will be an entirely different proposition.

Once the current international break is over, the next 11 rounds – almost 30 per cent of the entire season - will be played in just 47 days, starting on 18 November and ending on 3 January. All 20 top-flight clubs will play a league fixture, on average, every four days. If that sounds hectic but ultimately workable, remember there are also Champions League, Europa League and EFL Cup commitments to consider.

Take Chelsea as an example. Antonio Conte's side cannot let their foot off the pedal in the Champions League just yet following last week's defeat in Rome, with two group games remaining against Qarabag and Atletico Madrid. Then, on 20 December, a weakened side is likely to line up against Bournemouth in the EFL Cup quarter-finals. Altogether, with the added Premier League workload on top, Chelsea have two games a week every week until at least 7 January, FA Cup third round weekend.

A busy Christmas schedule is one of English football's traditions and one that is fervently defended, but rarely has it been quite so chaotic as this year. Last season may have had “the most uneven Christmas schedule in 20 years” according to Arsene Wenger, but it featured a mere nine rounds of fixtures in the same period. The year before, there was just eight. Generally, schedulers have stuck to eight or nine rounds over the years; 11 is unprecedented.

What will the consequences be? Firstly, it seems certain that by the time the FA Cup third round weekend comes along, top-flight clubs will be desperate to rest tired and over-worked first-choice players. Though talk of 'devaluing' the world's oldest football competition will seemingly never end, those who advocate a winter break will have a point.

In the Premier League itself, clubs with deeper resources and greater quality in reserve should fare better than those with smaller squads and less options at their disposal. The notional 'top six' should therefore break further away from the rest. Burnley are currently keeping pace with Arsenal and Liverpool, and Sean Dyche's stewardship at Turf Moor will be even more impressive if that is still the case in just over six weeks' time.

The most significant consequence of this fixture congestion though is that it could well decide the destination of the title, the identity of the top four and the fate of those fighting against relegation. The high concentration of fixtures in such a short period of time means that a poor run, an injury crisis, the loss of a key player or any one of the many problems that can befall a football team has a far greater impact. It could well send seasons spiralling out of control.

After 22 games last year, the eventual champions Chelsea were top, three of the top four were still there come May and just one of the clubs in the three relegation places managed to escape. Come 3 January, we may have an even better idea of how this season will pan out.