Manchester United: Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was always cautious about title talk and was right to be

“We’re not talking about winning titles,” Ole Gunnar Solskjaer insisted after Manchester United threw away the lead twice to draw 3-3 with Everton. And to be fair, he’s right. He hasn’t been. 

Solskjaer has consistently refused to talk up a potential challenge from Old Trafford, always showing caution. He was still playing the subject down when they moved two points clear top after winning away at Burnley last month. 

“Nobody will remember the league table on January 12,” he promised.

His mantra has always been to wait until April and May, to see what the lay of the land is then and decide whether a first league title since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement is remotely possible.

Never mind April and May, though. It’s not even Valentine’s Day and the air is quickly being let out of inflated expectations. First, there was Sheffield United’s stunning win at Old Trafford. That was the type of game that title contenders simply do not lose.

Read more: Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s last-gasp equaliser sees Everton dent Manchester United’s title hopes

Then, there was Saturday’s draw with Everton, in which United blew not one but two leads and were 2-0 ahead at half time. This was the type of game that title contenders simply have to win.

For some, it was reminiscent of the 4-4 against Everton at Old Trafford in April 2012.

Back then, Steven Pienaar’s late equaliser turned the Premier League title race on its head, denying United the opportunity to be crowned champions at the Etihad a week later and putting Manchester City’s destiny in their own hands.

But this time around, even if Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s late leveller also damaged United’s title hopes while strengthening City’s, the wider context could hardly be any more different.

Nine years ago, United were leading rather than chasing. They were reigning champions rather than surprise packages. City were counting on them to slip up rather than the other way around. 

And while the two were ultimately just separated by goal difference in 2011-12, the gap is expected to be much wider this time. If City’s 4-1 win at Anfield on Sunday is the required standard, United remain a long way off it. 

They do not even compare favourably to those 2012 runners-up. Pienaar’s goal was the 19th conceded at Old Trafford that season - United’s most in a Premier League campaign up to that point. 

Calvert-Lewin’s, meanwhile, was already the 18th that United have conceded at home this season. There are still seven games to go.

United have conceded 30 times in total home and away, more than nine previous title-winning sides did in an entire season, including both of Pep Guardiola’s City champions. 

At this rate, Solskjaer’s defence will ship 50 by the end of the season. No team has ever conceded that many and finished top.

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This is a season like no other, of course. Paradigms shift, old yardsticks become meaningless but - as pointed out in these pages after that Burnley win last month - United never looked like typical champions-in-waiting by any measure.

Whether judging by points, goals, goals conceded or their underlying numbers, they have always come up short against title-winning sides of the past.

Even during the 12-game unbeaten run, the impression was that this was a talented, improving team nevertheless running hot and edging close-run contests every now and again.

Look back on some of the wins - like against Wolves, Aston Villa and even West Ham - and despite all the justified praise of United’s mentality, such results always felt unsustainable without being underpinned by dominant performances.

Which is why, to Solskjaer’s credit, he did get ahead of himself. “We shouldn't even be considered as title-chasers,” he admitted on Saturday night. It was not defeatism but a sober reality check. 

Of course, Solskjaer will have to deliver a genuine title challenge soon. A club of United’s size demands it.

He may still do this season, in only his second full campaign in charge and ahead of schedule. But as it stands, comfortably qualifying for next season’s Champions League will be taken as a mark of progress.

Anything greater than that for United was always unlikely. After the surge to the top of the table and all the excitement that brought, the setbacks of the last few weeks have provided a reminder of the distance left to travel.