Liverpool should fear the real Atletico Madrid despite a lack of warning

Atletico Madrid go into Wednesday’s Champions League last 16 return game at Anfield believing they can dig out another of their traditionally intense and aggressive performances, despite not that much evidence over their La Liga games since the first leg.

The 1-0 victory over Liverpool at the Wanda Metropolitano three weeks ago showcased all the typical values of Diego Simeone’s side – togetherness in defence, efficiency in attack and unwavering focus and concentration over the whole 90 minutes.

Such virtues were less obvious during Saturday afternoon’s incident-packed 2-2 La Liga draw at home to Sevilla, which again showed the more brittle and finicky sides of Simeone’s current team.

A helter-skelter first half at the Wanda Metropolitano saw the visitors ahead through Luuk De Jong, Atletico hit back via an Alvaro Morata penalty and Joao Felix strike, and Lucas Ocampos levelled things up again from the spot all before the break.

The second half was much less dramatic, with Sevilla coach Julen Lopetegui content to soak up pressure and Atletico unable to find a way through even as Simeone continually tweaked his tactics and personnel.

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The draw kept Atletico in fifth place in the La Liga table, two points behind third-placed Sevilla, who left much the happier side. Both are now really stuck in a very tight race for the last two Champions League qualification places, which also includes Getafe, Real Sociedad, Valencia and Villarreal, and is likely to go right down to the wire.

That is an unusual position for Atletico to be in. Under Simeone, they have generally had a top four spot all but wrapped up by this stage, and were often challenging Real Madrid and Barcelona at the very top of the table.

The brightest spot as Atletico took five points from nine available over the last fortnight has been a clear return to form and fitness of Portuguese starlet Joao Felix – who appeared off the bench in the 3-1 home win over Villarreal and 1-1 draw at Espanyol, before making his first start since late January against Sevilla.

The 20-year-old had looked low on confidence before his muscle injury, and his absence was not talked about too much around the Liverpool game. Since returning he has looked much sharper and brighter, and he was in the picture during all Atletico’s best moments on Saturday.

Joao Felix was the first Atletico player to claim the penalty which was eventually awarded, after a long VAR wait, for a Diego Carlos handball. And his finish was unerring for the second, after he was released into space by Koke, who had dispossessed Sevilla’s stumbling Nemanja Gudelj deep in the Sevilla half.

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That made it two goals in just over 100 minutes since returning from injury for the former Benfica player. There was warm encouragement from the Wanda crowd throughout, even when two over ambitious long range efforts flew wide in the second half. And whistles for Simeone’s decision to substitute the youngster late on with Atletico pressing for a winner.

“Those fans did not know that Joao had cramps and we had to be careful with him and take him off,” El Cholo growled at the post-game news conference. “Joao played a good game, was very involved, and participated a lot.”

That was just as well, as Atletico looked pretty blunt elsewhere in attack against Sevilla, especially when Lopetegui shifted to three centre-backs during the second half. Of 21 shots over the 90 minutes, only three were on target – the two goals and a tame enough effort from substitute Yannick Carrasco.

Morata’s penalty was well taken – but is his only goal in almost 700 minutes of action. Diego Costa does not yet look 100 per cent fit following his back problems, and made little impact off the bench.

The main focus at Anfield is anyway likely to be mostly on Atletico’s defence. It remains startling that Liverpool did not even manage one shot on target over the 90 minutes of the first leg. Especially as Simeone’s team did not keep a clean sheet in any of the three La Liga games since.

Sevilla cut through pretty easily for their first goal on Sunday, with centre-back Stefan Savic misjudging a cross and leaving De Jong clear inside the box with time to pick his spot. The Andalusians’ second was also unavoidable, with Kieran Trippier clipping Ocampos’ heel amid an untidy scramble after Jan Oblak had made a typical wonder save from the Argentine attacker.

That opens up Simeone’s biggest selection posers for Wednesday – both full-back positions. So impressive in the first leg against Liverpool, left-back Renan Lodi was missing on Saturday due to caution over an unspecified injury, and the Brazilian missed training again on Sunday.

Mario Hermoso, a centre-back by trade, deputised against Sevilla and looked like someone playing only his second game of 2020. Nobody at Atletico wants their first leg goalscorer Saul Niguez to have to fill in at left-back on Wednesday, especially the player himself.

On the other flank, Trippier is challenged by Sime Vrsaljko, who so frustrated Sadio Mane in the first leg that Klopp substituted one of his key attackers at half-time. The England international has made a surprisingly quick recovery from a groin operation, but Vrsaljko’s better pace and engine might see him picked again at Anfield.

Liverpool’s dip in form since the first leg has of course not gone unnoticed within the Atletico camp, with the nervy 2-1 Premier League win at home to Bournemouth finishing just as the Rojiblanco players were warming up out on the Wanda pitch.

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“I’ve not watched their games, but of course we’ve heard the results,” midfielder Marcos Llorente told The Independent in the mixed zone afterwards. “Those are other competitions, the Champions League will be very different. It took a lot to get the victory in the game here, and we know it will be even tougher there. We know they will throw their lives into it from the first minute.”

Atletico also know that their away form has been poor all season – they lost at both Juventus and Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League gorup stages, and have just one win in their last 13 road games in all competitions. They are also aware of Liverpool’s strong record at Anfield, and will remember how Barcelona lost a 3-0 first leg advantage in last season’s UCL semi-finals.

A more pressing memory though is how Simeone’s side themselves blew a 2-0 lead when they went to Juventus at this stage of the competition 12 months ago, as Koke told reporters at the Wanda on Saturday.

“We have the lesson of last season, what happened to us in Turin, and we don’t want that to happen again,” Koke said. “We lacked intensity and aggression in that game, we were not Atletico Madrid. We know that when we are intense and aggressive and go for the game we can compete with anybody. As we did against Liverpool in the first game. That is the basis for this team and we must show it on Wednesday.”

That intensity and aggression was only seen in patches against Sevilla on Saturday, and its sporadic sightings are the reason why Atletico currently sit fifth in La Liga. But the way Simeone’s side upped their game for the first leg against Liverpool was striking – and they believe they can repeat that type of performance again at Anfield on Wednesday.