Leicester news: Premier League have wised up to Foxes... but it's too late to stop them - Danny Higginbotham

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Andrew Feinberg

White House Correspondent

The conventional wisdom says that Leicester City have a difficult next two matches, against Sunderland and West Ham United, which could open the title race back up for Tottenham Hotspur. But the conventional wisdom is wrong.

For a counter-attacking side like Leicester, the easier games are not the ones against sides with nothing to play for and nothing to prove, teams who would be willing to sit back and play out the 0-0. Those are the hard games.

The easier games, in fact, are against sides who need to win, sides like Sunderland and West Ham who will throw everything at them in pursuit of the three points. Leicester play Sunderland on Sunday West Ham next Sunday and then Manchester United on 1 May. They will be relishing the prospect.

This is because the story of Leicester City’s success is turning the opposition’s weakness into their own strength. They are top of the Premier League because of how they have exploited the desperation, impatience and snobbery of other teams when facing them.

The more impatient a team is when facing Leicester, the more vulnerable they are. The more men they desperately throw forward looking for a goal, the more they are likely to concede. So the more pressure Leicester are under, the more likely they are to score. That is way Leicester have played all season and it is surely going to win them the Premier League title.

Just look at two of the outstanding wins of Leicester’s season. In December they beat Chelsea 2-1 at home, in Jose Mourinho’s final game. Chelsea looked desperate to turn their season around but Leicester sat back, had just 34 per cent possession, and beat them on the break. Or when they went to the Etihad Stadium in February, against an arrogant and complacent Manchester City side, and won 3-1, a game which I have dissected in this column before.

In those two games, and many others before, Leicester had the luxury of playing precisely how they wanted to, whether away or at home. They sat deep, surrendered possession, and waited for their opponent to take the initiative, and to open themselves up. Then they counter-attacked with their blistering pace.

What always impresses me about Leicester, and this is not a word we often use in English football, is their patience. They do not chase games, and they certainly do not panic if they do not have the lead by the 75th or even 85th minute. They are happy to sit and wait until they get their chance. That patience comes from Claudio Ranieri himself, and the trust he has in his players to execute their plan.

Their winner against Tottenham was in the 83rd minute. Their winner against Norwich in the 89th. If Sam Allardyce’s Sunderland try to out-wait them on Saturday they will eventually crack too, and Leicester will take advantage of their desperation for the three points.

So Leicester invite the opposition onto them, knowing that it works in their favour. I have seen a lot of Leicester this season and I would say that as much as 80 per cent of their goals come against the run of play, especially their recent winners against Southampton and Crystal Palace. When was the last time we said that a goal for Leicester has been coming?

Only recently, with Leicester looking increasingly likely to win the title, have other teams realised what they are trying to do.

In Leicester’s first 12 home games this season, they had less possession than their opponent in 11 of them. The one where they did in fact have more of the ball was against a 10-man Bournemouth side. Leicester were delighted with this, the less of the ball they have, the better. Look at the graphic showing their average positions in the 2-1 defeat of Chelsea – the archetypal Leicester performance – and how deep Jamie Vardy could play, happy to lie in wait to attack on the break.

Only in the last few weeks have teams learnt to show Leicester the respect they deserve, to try to force them to change their game rather than blindly walking into Ranieri’s traps. Now teams that come to the King Power Stadium know to try to sit back, let Leicester have more of the ball, and not just willingly open themselves up.

Southampton was a good example last weekend. I know Ronald Koeman said that he played 3-5-2 so that he could get two strikers in the team, but I believe that is just a smokescreen. I think he did it so that his three centre-backs could defend across the width, stopping Leicester from getting down the sides on the counter. I can see the logic behind it, but while it did stave off that threat on the break, it conceded space down the sides. And Christian Fuchs set up Wes Morgan’s winning goal with a cross from the left.

But in that game Leicester did have more of the ball than they are used to, with 46 per cent possession. And you can see from our graphic that Jamie Vardy was forced to play higher up the pitch than he would like to because there was so little space to exploit in behind.

In Leicester’s other recent home games they have been forced to have even more of the ball. Possession was 50/50 against Newcastle, they had 58 per cent against Norwich and 65 per cent against West Brom.

And yet Leicester keep finding a way to win. Ultimately, it is very easy for teams to say that they want to beat Leicester at their own game, but far harder in practice. Because Leicester are better at what they do than anyone else is, and because of that word ‘patience’. If it becomes a waiting game Leicester will always win.

Five of Leicester’s last six games have been 1-0 wins, which shows how well they have adjusted to the fact that only now are teams taking them seriously. When they do have the lead, Ranieri takes their game-plan to the next step. Leonardo Ulloa comes on, giving them a more direct out-ball from the back, and the whole team sits even deeper, helping them to grind out the results.

The Premier League, then, has finally woken up to Leicester but almost certainly not in time to stop them. Next season will be different because teams will know from the start what Leicester are trying to do. In the Champions League, though, I think they will be perfectly set up to play against possession-based European sides, allowing them to play their game, sitting back and waiting to hit teams on the break. Those European sides will not be able to say that they were not warned.