Toothless Arsenal have a ruthlessness problem after Aston Villa defeat exposes familiar flaws

Mikel Arteta had just finished conducting his inquest into Arsenal’s impotence at Villa Park when Joe Willock scored. Not for Arsenal, obviously: Willock may have struck with 38 percent of his shots in this season’s Europa League but the rest of his Premier League campaign will come in Newcastle’s colours.

An hour or so before Willock opened his United account, Martin Odegaard spurned the chance to score his first goal for Arsenal, skying a shot into the North Stand. For reasons that went beyond shared initials or a background at Real Madrid, Odegaard was seen as Mesut Ozil’s successor when he arrived; given the German had not been in Arsenal’s Premier League squad, he actually replaced Willock as the No. 10 not named Emile Smith Rowe.

None of which is to say that Willock would definitely have scored an equaliser for Arsenal on Saturday or that Arteta was wrong to see loaning the Norwegian in and the Englishman out as an upgrade; the evidence is far too slender to reach any conclusion. But timing can confer a sense of brilliance upon a manager. Arsenal’s summer surge to FA Cup glory felt a triumph of strategy; it was more by judgment than luck. Their winter revival felt the reverse; perhaps Arteta stumbled on a solution called Smith Rowe.

Now Arsenal have a solitary goal and a solitary point from three games, despite being terrific for 44 minutes at Wolves and, according to Arteta, dominating at Aston Villa. In which case, to borrow an old phrase of Arsene Wenger’s, it was sterile domination. Arsenal had 66 percent of possession and three shots on target, to Villa’s eight. “The numbers we produce in the final third we have to be hitting the target at least 10 or 12 times,” he said.

Instead, 12 other sides average more shots on target. Arsenal have only mustered least eight attempts on target once in the top flight this season: against an imploding West Brom side.

They have been too structured and too cautious at times, an accusation that could not be levelled at Arteta when he finished with Smith Rowe, Odegaard, Bukayo Saka, Willian, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Nicolas Pepe all on the pitch. If anything, they were overloaded with attackers; if, that is, Willian can still be described as such.

He can be a one-man explanation for the lack of imagination in autumn, and the verve of Smith Rowe and Saka underlines what a failure a player who used to be known for his dynamism is. The enterprising youngsters have alleviated the problem of late but over the course of the campaign, they have been insufficiently creative. And, unlike in summer, insufficiently clinical.

In part, that is the Aubameyang deficit. The captain’s incision used to camouflage a lack of invention. Brought off the bench, Aubameyang missed a late chance against Aston Villa; his chance conversion rate was at least 20 percent in each of his previous three seasons as a Gunner. Now it is 10.

There has been a knock-on effect. The fact that Arsenal had the joint best conversion rate with Liverpool and Manchester City last season but scored just 56 goals underlined how few chances they created. Now it is down from 13 percent to nine, from a share of first to lower mid-table. Now, after a flurry of 37 shots on target in six games after Christmas, Arsenal have just nine in three. Given the positions they were in, it should have been more but a lack of ruthlessness can lead to toothlessness.

There are two remedies: to create more or to finish better. Ideally, as Arteta suggested, both. “We have to hit the target much more consistently to win football matches,” he said. “It is about the final pass, the final move, the cutback, the delivery in the box: all those things we have to improve.”

It is about taking the lead, as a team who are not configured to chase games only have four points from losing positions, all against Southampton, and an early error proved decisive against Villa. If it is about taking chances as well as making them, the recent formula, based around Smith Rowe, Saka, Pepe and Alexandre Lacazette, was notable for how quickly plans shifted.

Arsenal have lost to Villa with Willian and Aubameyang starting and with them as substitutes. And over 180 minutes, they have only had five shots on target, the same as Ollie Watkins has had on his own, and three fewer goals than him.