Why Arsenal and Manchester City are at risk of missing out on top four

Arsene Wenger knew before Arsenal travelled down to Bournemouth last night that it was a must-win game. The story of this season’s Premier League, after last year’s shock Leicester City triumph, is that the top six are not dropping points to the bottom 14 teams any more. No one can succeed this season while throwing away points in games like that.

“What is happening in this league is that all the big teams are winning against the smaller teams,” Wenger explained on Sunday night. “The only moment where the [big] teams drop points is when they play against each other, but that can change. We have to hang on, try to win, and hope results turn in our favour.”

That is why Tuesday’s dramatic draw at Dean Court, which felt more like a win, was in fact closer to a defeat. The standards being set in this year’s Premier League mean that the big teams have no margin for error when it comes to beating the smaller ones. Even in game where they have the “big handicap” of just one rest day beforehand.

But while Arsenal and Manchester City can bemoan the fact that Chelsea are pulling far away into the distance, the reality of recent form is that both of those teams should be more worried about the teams behind them. Because for both Wenger and Pep Guardiola, their early-season title challenges are threatening to give way to long slogs for the top four.

Arsenal and City went into the season seeing Champions League qualification as a given but they are now facing the facts that Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur are hot on their heels.

United have the second-best winning streak in the country, having won their last six straight, their best record since April 2015, back in the first season of Louis van Gaal. Having looked desperately dysfunctional in the first few months of Jose Mourinho, now they have rediscovered that old Mourinho knack of grinding out wins and clean sheets again. They are only going to get better and suddenly Champions League qualification feels likely again.

Almost as surprising as that is the turnaround at Tottenham. They have won four straight in the league, putting four past Southampton on 28 December and Watford on 1 January. They are playing their best football since March of last year having rediscovered that physical power that took them so close to last year’s title. There is no harder game for Chelsea to try to break the consecutive wins record than their trip to White Hart Lane.

Since the last European round in early December, United and Spurs have taken 18 and 15 points respectively from six league games. The only team to beat Tottenham, in fact, was United, in a tight game at Old Trafford. In that time City have taken 12 points and Arsenal only 10, as they have struggled with rhythm and fitness.

City are hoping that slow process of learning from Guardiola, and the arrival of Gabriel Jesus, will help to stabilise the team in the second half of the season. But they will need to improve fast, and find a balance between defending and attacking that has eluded them recently. For City and Arsenal there is a new danger in 2017, not just missing out on the title, but on the Champions League altogether.