John Carlin: Should he stay or should he go? Why Beckham has to read Capello's mind

David Beckham has a month and a half to decide whether to renew his contract with Real Madrid or move on elsewhere. His decision, as we now know from the club themselves, hinges not on money, nor on how much Real want him (a lot, it transpires), but on his estimation of whether he will recover anything dimly resembling a first-team place. In order to answer that question he has to look inside the mind of his coach, Fabio Capello.

Beckham's problem is that Capello is as much in the dark as to the goings-on inside his mind as everybody else is.

Not - it should immediately be stated - as regards his defence. He has no doubts about his back seven - the goalkeeper, the two full-backs and two centre-halves, the two defensive midfielders. But, famously cocksure of himself as the Italian always has been, four months into his reign at Real he remains clueless as to the identity of his best attacking foursome.

But, after defeat at home on Sunday to Celta Vigo, and amid growing dismay among the Bernabeu not-so-faithful at the dire quality of play, this is a question to which he must start addressing himself with urgency.

So what are Capello's options? What are the factors that Beckham must weigh before making up his mind how he means to spend his last years as a professional footballer?

The worst-case scenario is that things remain as they are. Eight forwards - Ronaldo, Ruud van Nistelrooy, Raul, Guti, Antonio Cassano, Robinho, Jose Antonio Reyes and Beckham - competing for four places. For, despite Beckham being the only recognised right-sided attacker in the squad, Capello considers two left-sided ones - the Brazilian Robinho and the Arsenal loanee Reyes - to be ahead of him in the pecking order. The issue is complicated for Beckham by Capello's puzzling persistence in starting with Raul who, when he does not play up front alongside Ronaldo or Van Nistelrooy, plays wide on the left. As for the one playmaker midfield slot that Capello favours, Guti owns it, with little chance of Beckham being considered as an alternative. Capello would play Raul there before Beckham.

Can things improve for Beckham? Is there any light at the end of the players' tunnel? One encouraging sign last week concerned Cassano, who appears to have lowered the odds in favour of Beckham after an angry outburst against Capello that has put him in the doghouse. The talented former Roma bad-boy, now permanently on the bench, gave voice to the very same frustration Beckham feels, but the Englishman judiciously keeps to himself. The club have suspended Cassano indefinitely. Short of a formal apology, he will be out of the door in January.

Another stroke of luck for Beckham, if not for Real, came in the shape Celta's second and winning goal on Sunday. It followed an attempt by Reyes to dribble the ball on the edge of his own penalty area. He was dispossessed and, in two passes, Celta had scored. Knowing Capello, Reyes will be dispatched to remotest Siberia for a good few games. This is good news for Beckham, but there is still the matter of Robinho.

Much rests, as Beckham will be aware, on whether Capello remains faithful to the captain, Raul, with whom the Italian does have a special personal understanding. For if he does not - and in strict footballing terms there is no reason why he should - then the wiry Brazilian, the most talented player in the team, would be as assured as anyone can be of his place as a starter on the left.

So, let us do Beckham's best-case calculations for him: with Cassano seemingly out (probably for good), with Reyes discarded (more questionable) and Raul out of favour (highly unlikely), then he would stand a reasonable chance of making it, with some regularity, into the first XI.

But no more than that. Because Capello has indicated that he would like to explore the possibility (tried very sporadically so far) of playing Van Nistelrooy and Ronaldo up front together. That means you would have Robinho, Ronaldo and Van Nistelrooy plus one more, who would almost certainly be Guti - the sole link between defence and attack.

There are two further possibilities. Beckham, who in his sad state of mind must lie awake pondering all the permutations, will have allowed each to flit through his mind. First, that Capello abandons the habits of a lifetime and trades one defensive midfielder for an attacking one; plays with five forwards instead of four. Second (the apocalypse scenario), that Real suffer two or three more defeats to sides like Celta between now and Christmas, at which point there would be a Bernabeu revolt and either Capello's or the club president Ramon Calderon's head will roll. Or both.

There is also, of course, the prospect of injuries to Beckham's in-house rivals. But in that case the club would buy in the winter market. All indicates, in fact, that they will do so anyway. There is much talk of a new attacking midfielder. At which point, the maths would once more go against Beckham.

Beckham would like to stay at Real, ideally. He likes the club; they like him. He likes Madrid; so does his family. But the more you think about it - and the more, surely, that he does - the more undignified a prospect it appears.