Bright young things have no guarantee of glittering career

There will be proud parents, interested scouts and avaricious agents aplenty at the Riverside tonight, but most of those watching Middlesbrough and Manchester United in the first leg of the FA Youth Cup final will simply be curious. Are they about to see the next Wayne Rooney? Is this to be their club's golden generation?

It will not be easy to judge, for the result is no guide. A decade ago the Manchester United side which went on to be the most capped former youth team in history lost to one from Leeds whose members failed to play a senior international between them.

The most eye-catching moment came not from David Beckham, Paul Scholes, Nicky Butt, Gary or Phil Neville, Robbie Savage or Keith Gillespie, the seven United players who have gone on to forge impressive international and Premiership careers, but from Jamie Forrester. The Leeds striker's bicycle-kick goal appeared to presage a glittering career. Instead it was the peak. He went on to play just 11 times for Leeds, scoring twice. After spells with Southend, Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall and Northampton, he is now at Hull City.

Forrester, though, has at least made a career from the game. To judge from subsequent finals less than half the youngsters at the Riverside will do so with, at best, a handful securing the fast cars-and-swimming pool lifestyle of the Premiership. This was underlined by the fate of Arsenal's winners a year after Forrester's final. Only Stephen Hughes and Matthew Rose made any kind of impact on the professional game. Hughes, 26, is currently without a club, training at Charlton having left Watford. Rose, 27, is on the bench at QPR.

Of later finalists the Leeds vintage of 1997 stand out, although West Ham covered their youth bills for more than a decade when they uncovered Rio Ferdinand and Frank Lampard a year earlier. Nor will their opponents, Liverpool, resent the investment in Michael Owen's generation. Other notable finalists include Stephen Carr, Joe Cole, Francis Jeffers, David Dunn and, last year, Wayne Rooney, though he was outshone by Aston Villa's Stefan Moore.

The careers of most finalists, however, are more like Jeffers' 1998 team-mate Jamie Milligan, who looked the part but failed to make the cut at Goodison and is now at Blackpool. He is in good company. Three team-mates – Ben Thornley, John O'Kane and Leam Richardson – also played in Youth Cup finals.

Such a fate looks to be increasingly common. It is not just that the influx of foreign players has raised the standard. The place money in the Premiership means every game, even for mid-table teams, is must-win. Arsène Wenger is thus not alone in his reluctance to play Jermaine Pennant instead of Sylvain Wiltord; many mid-table counterparts are also reluctant to give youth its head.

The irony is that Premiership clubs are investing more money in their youth teams than ever, £1-2m a year, yet the beneficiaries are as likely to be a Nationwide League club.

Among the players to have left Arsenal, where only Ashley Cole has broken through since Ray Parlour, are Julian Gray and Tommy Black (now with Crystal Palace), Steve Sidwell and James Harper (Reading), Paolo Vernazza (Watford), Jay Bothroyd (Coventry) and Ben Chorley (Wimbledon). Two of the most promising players educated by Liam Brady and Don Howe, Rohan Ricketts and David Noble, are hoping to break through at Tottenham and West Ham.

Whether any of these players will give Arsenal cause to regret their departure only time will tell. In the meantime they have brought in £2.1m, with more to come from sell-on clauses. They have also been welcomed at their new clubs.

"There is no substitute for a good grounding," said Ray Lewington, the manager of Vernazza's Watford. "You get taught the techniques and how to play the game. That will always keep you in good stead.

"The top clubs are discarding better players because they are buying in from abroad. Most of the time they are better than the ones we are bringing through. When I was manager at Brentford Ron Noades [the chairman] told me he didn't see any reason for smaller clubs to have a youth set-up because the fall-out was so great from the senior clubs."

It is not just the Patrick Vieiras and Ruud van Nistelrooys barring young Britons' way. Arsenal's 2001 Youth Cup winners included players from France, Germany and Denmark. They also have youngsters from the US, Brazil, Sweden and Iceland.

Manchester United cast the net wide too, as the presence in their forward line tonight of the Dane, Mads Timms, will illustrate. But the nation's most successful youth system, originated by Sir Matt Busby and revived by Sir Alex Ferguson, concentrates on distilling the best native talent.

As well as the honours won by Beckham and company, this has earned more than £11m in player sales in the last decade. The first team is harder than ever to penetrate but United's attraction is the knowledge that Ferguson will give youth a chance. Wes Brown and John O'Shea have made the grade, and Darren Fletcher, who may play tonight, and Kieran Richardson, who will, could be next. Failing that they will surely find a home, probably at Preston. Not every teenager at the Riverside tonight, with stars in his eyes, will be so lucky.

THE ONES THAT MADE IT SUCCESSFUL FA YOUTH CUP FINALISTS

1993
(Players now aged 28 or under)

Leeds bt Manchester United 4-1 on aggregate

LEEDS UNITED: In current first-team squad: None. In Premiership: N Whelan (Middlesbrough, on loan to Crystal Palace). Player sales: £2.375m.

MANCHESTER UNITED: In squad: G Neville, P Neville, D Beckham, N Butt, P Scholes. In Premiership: R Savage (Birmingham), K Gillespie (Blackburn). In First Division: C Murdock (Preston). Sales: £1.825m.

1994
Arsenal bt Millwall 5-3 on agg

ARSENAL: None playing in top two divisions. Sales: £1m.

MILLWALL: In Premiership: B Thatcher (Tottenham). In First Division: M Kennedy (Wolves), J Wright (Ipswich). Sales: £3.4m.

1995
Manchester United bt Tottenham (on pens)

MANCHESTER UNITED: In squad: P Neville. In Premiership: R Wallwork (West Bromwich), J Curtis (Blackburn, on loan to Sheffield United). In First Division: P Mulryne (Norwich), D Johnson (Nottingham Forest), T Cooke (Grimsby), A Westwood (Sheffield Wednesday). Sales: £3.34m.

TOTTENHAM: In squad: S Carr. In Premiership: S Clemence (Birmingham). Sales: £1.9m.

1996
Liverpool bt West Ham 4-1 on agg

LIVERPOOL: In squad: M Owen, J Carragher. In Premiership: D Thompson (Blackburn). Sales: £3m.

WEST HAM: In Premiership: F Lampard (Chelsea), R Ferdinand (Manchester Utd). Sales: £29.13m.

1997
Leeds bt Crystal Palace 3-1 on agg

LEEDS UNITED: In squad: P Robinson, H Kewell, S MacPhail. In Premiership: J Woodgate (Newcastle). In First Division: M Jones (Leicester). Sales: £12.4m.

CRYSTAL PALACE: In squad: Haydon Mullins. In Premiership: C Morrison (Birmingham City). Sales: £5.1m.

1998
Everton bt Blackburn 5-3 on agg

EVERTON: In Premiership: F Jeffers (Arsenal), R Dunne (Manchester City). In First Division: D Cadamarteri (Bradford City). Sales: £11.15m.

BLACKBURN: In squad: D Dunn, M Taylor. Sales: £50,000.

1999
West Ham bt Coventry 9-0 on agg

WEST HAM: In squad: M Carrick, J Cole, S Bywater. Sales: None as yet.

COVENTRY: In squad: G McSheffrey, C Davenport, C Pead. In Premiership: C Kirkland (Liverpool). Sales: £6m.

2000
Arsenal bt Coventry 5-1 on agg

ARSENAL: In squad: J Pennant, M Volz. In First Division: J Bothroyd (Coventry), G Barrett (on loan to Brighton). Sales: £1m.

COVENTRY: In squad: G McSheffrey, G Montgomery, C Davenport, C Pead.

2001
Arsenal bt Blackburn 6-3 on agg

ARSENAL: In squad: J Pennant, J Aliadière, R Garry, S Svard, M Volz, C Holloway. In First Division: S Sidwell (Reading), B Chorley (Wimbledon). Sales: £250,000

BLACKBURN: In squad: N Danns, R Robinson.

2002
Aston Villa bt Everton 4-2 on agg

ASTON VILLA: In squad: S Moore, L Moore, L Ridgewell, W Henderson.

EVERTON: In squad: W Rooney. In First Division: A Pettinger (Grimsby).

* Only players who appeared in either leg of the final have been considered.

THE MANCHESTER UNITED PRODUCTION LINE

UNITED YOUTH XI
(4-4-2)

Rachubka (now Charlton); G Neville, Brown, O'Shea, P Neville; Beckham, Butt, Scholes, Giggs; Macken (Manchester City), Johnson (Nottingham Forest). Substitutes: Pilkington (Mansfield), Higginbottom (Southampton), Wallwork (West Bromwich), Savage (Birmingham), Healy (Preston, on loan to Norwich).

YOUTH PROFITS
(1993 youth team onwards)

Higginbottom (Derby, £2m, now Southampton); Curtis (Blackburn, £1.5m); Healy (Preston, £1.5m); Cooke (Manchester City, £1m, now Grimsby); Wilson (Middlesbrough, *£1m); Gillespie (Newcastle, £1m, now Blackburn); Mulryne (Norwich, £500,000); Appleton (Preston, £500,000, now West Bromwich); McGibbon (Wigan, £380,000, now semi-pro); Casper (Reading, £300,000, now retired); Macken (Preston, £250,000+, now Manchester City); Notman (Norwich, £250,000); O'Kane (Everton, £250,000, now Blackpool); Rachubka (Charlton, £200,000); Thornley (Huddersfield, £175,000, now Blackpool); Murdock (Preston, £100,000); Westwood (Crewe, £40,000, now Sheffield Wed). Significant frees: Wallwork (West Bromwich), Savage (Crewe, now Birmingham), Johnson (ÝBury, now Nottingham Forest).

TOTAL FEES
£10,945,000, plus sell-on percentages.

* estimate: sold with Jonathan Greening for £3.5m.

includes clause ensuring cut of future transfers