Newcastle and Eddie Howe face next challenge after year of upward progress

New manager, new players, new director of football, new CEO, new owners. A year after regime change and the ‘new’ has been put back into Newcastle United. Where they had lingered in limbo at the end of Mike Ashley’s reign, more has altered in 12 months than the previous five years. While the questions about the morality of the takeover of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund are largely aired outside St James’ Park, inside it, there is a sense of renewal amid a revival of hope and ambition.

That Mike Ashley sold a club in 19^th and Saturday’s 5-1 demolition of Brentford left Newcastle fifth indicates the scale of change. Equally, it is easier to overtake the stragglers than the pacesetters and if future growth will not appear as quick, Newcastle’s next challenge is to retain a lofty position, to stand still rather than going forward.

There is proof of progress but areas with obvious scope for improvement. Thomas Frank’s verdict was instructive and, after his Brentford side made themselves all too easy to overcome, their manager observed Eddie Howe’s work and said: “He has made them very, very difficult to beat.”

The chances are that Howe would not see that as a backhanded compliment. He has been Newcastle’s pragmatic revolutionary. The facts support Frank’s argument. United have played 29 league games since Christmas and lost just six: to Chelsea, Everton, Tottenham, Manchester City and Liverpool (twice); had matches ended a few minutes earlier, they would have drawn three of those.

There is, though, a lone win against the big six. Newcastle aim to join the best but the seismic strides so far have come against the rest. St James’ Park, in particular, is a fortress: only Liverpool, City and – incongruously – Cambridge have won there in Howe’s 11-month reign.

Home and away, in Newcastle’s last 20 league matches against sides outside the big six, they have won 14. That solitary defeat at Goodison Park stands out: so do this season’s four draws, especially when they were held at home by Crystal Palace and Bournemouth. Fine as their start is, maybe they should be four points better off. The caveat to the plaudits is to point out that Newcastle’s three wins came against two clubs promoted last season, in Nottingham Forest and Fulham, plus one who went up in 2021, in Brentford.

Their next three opponents include Manchester United and Tottenham, matches that have the feel of barometers of whether their top-six status is sustainable. Yet perhaps the most telling game is sandwiched by the more glamorous meetings: they face Everton and, if the three teams they have defeated so far are potential bottom-six finishers, there is a separate test of whether Newcastle can win a mid-table mini-league.

open image in gallery

They were due to visit West Ham on 11 September, before the postponement of fixtures that weekend, and it might have been their most significant match so far. They drew at Brighton, another potential seventh-place finisher, but only because Nick Pope excelled. Such clashes may reveal if Newcastle are the best of the rest.

They can attribute some of their draws to missing the difference-makers, to facing Palace without Bruno Guimaraes, Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin and meeting Bournemouth without the latter pair, when now there is a greater onus on them to attack. That a team who averaged 42 league goals in five previous seasons now have nine in their last two games points to a greater potency. The 3-3 draw with City was evidence of boldness. Normally, however, Howe has given them the platform Frank praised, even if it has not always been allied with a clinical streak.

Part of the necessary shift has been from being a team who average around 40 percent of possession to one who now have a majority, both over the season and against all bar Brighton, City and Liverpool. It comes with the greater expectation to win of a side who played underdog football under Rafa Benitez and Steve Bruce; in itself, that explains why some of the comparisons presented to Howe are with Kevin Keegan and Bobby Robson, managers who entertained and energised, who had a natural connection with the people of Tyneside.

The outsider, the southerner that Tyneside has embraced, is striking a clever balance, grounded but aspirational, careful not to get carried away but not discouraging others from dreaming, knowing hope was abolished for a few years before his arrival. Saturday was the first time since 2016 that Newcastle scored five in a top-flight game. Then a demolition of Tottenham came after United had already been relegated, the futility of it making it more poignant. More often, the Ashley years were a grim struggle. Now Newcastle feel upwardly mobile and optimistic. They don’t yet know the destination but they are enjoying the journey.