Eddie Howe needs a turning point as he faces crunch moment in Newcastle reign

A derby defeat to Sunderland finished off a Newcastle United manager who had reached a cup final the previous season. His team were on a losing run, he compounded it with a disastrous team selection and a loss to local rivals. He left a few days later.

Eddie Howe, it is safe to say, has rarely been compared to Ruud Gullit. He proved the first Newcastle manager since the Dutchman to take United to Wembley, and also lost to Manchester United there, but the similarities are otherwise superficial. Sunderland do not hold such immediate peril for him: not when the vast majority of the Newcastle fanbase appreciates his overachievement in the two years before a disastrous last month and when he retains the backing of the club’s powerbrokers; or the more known quantities, at least, such as co-owner Amanda Staveley and director of football Dan Ashworth.

If more mystique surrounds the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund, which has an 80 per cent stake in the club, then its governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan went on the record saying Newcastle had outperformed last season. For now, the mood music around Howe is supportive. The realist in him knows that seven defeats in eight is a wretched run for a club with such vaunting ambition. The worst-case scenario is it becomes 10 out of 11, given the forthcoming league matches against Manchester City and Aston Villa, that a slide becomes terminal. Sunderland was the endgame for Gullit. Howe could do with it proving the start of a revival. Newcastle need it to be a turning point. “It has to,” he said on Monday.

It is inauspicious, then, that the two worst results of Howe’s reign have come in the FA Cup third round, defeats to Cambridge United and Sheffield Wednesday when each was in League One; Sunderland, currently holding a Championship play-off spot, represent a superior level of underdog. Nor does it bode well for the shortest trip of Newcastle’s season that, including the penalty shootout at Chelsea, they have been beaten in each of their last five away games. They were seconds away from defeating Paris Saint-Germain in the French capital but have only two triumphs on their travels this season: both emphatic and against Uniteds.

The record 8-0 victory at Sheffield United may have less pertinence than the 3-0 Carabao Cup win at Old Trafford with such a makeshift side that it contained five full-backs. Part of that formula may be repeatable, even in the absence of the injured Kieran Trippier and Matt Targett – Howe still has various other fit full-backs – and there will be particular scrutiny on his choices at a point when regulars have been overworked and need rest and yet the penalty for failure could be considerable. Does Howe place his fate in the lesser-used Lewis Hall, Emil Krafth, Paul Dummett and Matt Ritchie?

It would scarcely be comparable with Gullit dropping Alan Shearer for football’s third-most-famous Paul Robinson but, for other reasons, there have been distinguished absentees this season. Injuries have been Newcastle’s constant companion, to the extent that some outsiders have started to claim a valid reason is merely an excuse. It is not: Howe was entitled to argue that, when he made a lone substitution in the first 80 minutes at Liverpool while Jurgen Klopp made game-changing switches, beyond Miguel Almiron, he lacked attacking replacements.

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It has been part of the problem: Newcastle’s football necessitates energy, the start of the season indicated Howe intended to use a greater strength in depth to make mass alterations after 60 or 70 minutes in the midfield and the forward line. That ability has been removed from him. At least some of the late goals Newcastle have conceded – three in 12 minutes at Anfield, three in 17 at Goodison Park, an injury-time equaliser to Chelsea, an AC Milan winner that knocked them out of Europe – could be put down to fatigue.

Yet a record of 18 goals conceded in eight games during a disastrous four weeks is damning: so, too, the Premier League record of 7.27 xG that Liverpool amassed against three of Howe’s preferred back four and the hugely gifted Tino Livramento. Including the shootout at Stamford Bridge, Newcastle have lost 13 times this season. Given the calibre of opponents, perhaps only four can be deemed genuinely bad results – the exhausted no-show at Bournemouth, the late relapse at Everton and the losses to Luton and Nottingham Forest. But two of those came in the last three matches, at a point where – until Trippier and Callum Wilson were hurt – Newcastle’s squad looked bigger; St James’ Park had been an impregnable fortress for inferior teams until Forest conquered it. When things should have got better for Newcastle, they got worse.

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Over the season as a whole, they have more excellent than dreadful results: two wins over Manchester United, one apiece against Manchester City and Arsenal, demolitions of Chelsea and Aston Villa, the latter appearing a still better win as the campaign has progressed, and the unforgettable evisceration of Paris Saint-Germain. It is a reason why Howe retains credit in the bank with most, though he will not want to draw upon it.

There is a further element. There is no disguising that seven defeats in eight games is unsatisfactory; nor did their owners invest to be ninth in the Premier League. There was, though, the recognition that they were ahead of schedule last season and that this year could be tougher. A top-six finish may sound underwhelming but would actually be reasonable. Some at St James’ Park realise that.

There is a wider question of Newcastle’s status. It is easy to brand them the world’s richest club, harder for them to behave like it. The owners are willing to spend but acutely aware of the parameters of Financial Fair Play. There is interest in Kalvin Phillips, a debate if they should sign a goalkeeper in Nick Pope’s absence – Martin Dubravka’s Anfield heroics might help answer that – but limits to what Newcastle can do. Unless they can be creative or persuasive, it may be a quiet January in the transfer market. If there are no changes on the pitch, Howe could do with the kind of results to ensure there are none in the dugout either.