Liverpool and Newcastle have it all to prove in Premier League’s frosty rivalry

With a bit less injury time at Anfield, Newcastle might still be the Tyneside Invincibles. As it is, their longest unbeaten run in the top flight has amounted to a remarkable response to unwanted late drama. Fabio Carvalho’s August winner for Liverpool came in the 98th minute and, 17 league games later, it is still the case that no one has beaten Newcastle; or no one except Sheffield Wednesday in an FA Cup tie anyway.

Include Carabao Cup encounters and Newcastle have played 27 matches against their Premier League peers this season and lost just one. Keep that run going for another 10 days and, barring defeat on penalties, they will end a 54-year wait for major silverware.

But before then, Liverpool’s visit to St James’ Park is laden with pertinence. They were the last visitors to win there, with a Naby Keita goal for a quadruple-chasing side in April. Now it is fourth place Liverpool want and fourth place Newcastle occupy. If United’s season has exceeded all expectations so far, the next three games may shape it: Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City.

As they face the other United in the Carabao Cup final, next weekend affords rivals a further opportunity to catch them. Newcastle have been in the top four since October. Come 5 March, if not earlier, they risk being cast outside it.

Saturday’s game could be seen as a revenge mission for Newcastle, a chance to kill off Liverpool’s wildly erratic bid for a Champions League place. Jurgen Klopp’s team have a greater need for victory. The burden of proof, however, may be on Eddie Howe’s.

It may be overly harsh to find fault with a 17-game unbeaten run but five of the last six have been drawn. Newcastle’s standout league results, victories over Tottenham and Chelsea, came before the World Cup. They could have accelerated away from an inconsistent Spurs side but have instead been pulled a point closer over the last two weekends, even including Tottenham’s hapless showing at Leicester.

It has coincided with Bruno Guimaraes’s absence. Newcastle have drawn the first two games of his suspension for his sending off against Southampton and this is the last. Howe has named eight starting line-ups without the Brazilian this season and, shootouts aside, Newcastle have won just one, against League Two Tranmere. Take away the class act in the midfield and they are left looking purely workmanlike.

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Meanwhile, goals have been similarly scarce. These teams are twinned on three in the league in 2023, bettering only Bournemouth, albeit with the significant caveat that Liverpool have conceded nine and Newcastle just two. The final third may be the final frontier for Howe’s side, so impressive in other elements but relatively impotent of late. They have had seven 0-0 draws this season, three of them against Crystal Palace; if Kevin Keegan’s United famously lost 4-3 to Liverpool and acquired a reputation as the entertainers, Howe’s team have pursued a more pragmatic path.

Perhaps they have also suffered for their success, with the onus now on them to break teams down. It has proved difficult of late. Miguel Almiron’s golden scoring run camouflaged the reality most of his teammates are expected-goals underachievers. Callum Wilson has just one actual goal in his last 11 appearances. Alexander Isak scored on a hugely auspicious debut at Anfield but injuries have interrupted his Newcastle career since then. Allan Saint-Maximin offered the X factor in poorer teams and may not figure in Howe’s first-choice side, though Guimaraes’s ban has brought him back in. That lack of goals added intrigue to the signing of Anthony Gordon. The Liverpudlian made an impact in last week’s draw with Bournemouth and could get a first start against Liverpool; for Everton, however, his record stood at just seven goals in 78 games. Newcastle have others who can run around quickly.

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Not that Liverpool’s January attacking acquisition has been much more prolific. Cody Gakpo has one goal. At an initial £37m, he was slightly cheaper than the £40m Gordon, and some spice may have been added to a rivalry by Klopp’s October comments that: “There are three clubs in world football who can do what they want financially.” Newcastle were not named but the implication was clear.

Yet money is not the sole explanation for Newcastle’s rise, nor the lack of it for Liverpool’s slide. Newcastle’s teamwork has taken them to the brink of the trophy that eluded their predecessors and put them on course for Champions League football; if, that is, they can keep established teams like Liverpool at bay. Rewind to April, and Howe was a realist in what remains Newcastle’s last home defeat. “It shows also there is a gap we have to bridge to the top teams but I am not surprised by that,” he said. The surprise has come since then. Now it is Liverpool with the gap to bridge as they cross the Tyne.