The alarming numbers behind Manchester United’s biggest problem – and the obvious solution

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Andrew Feinberg

White House Correspondent

When Erik ten Hag watches football as a fan, it is Twente he follows most. He was a player and is now a coach, and as a man who grew up a few miles from Enschede, he now has a different way of following their the Dutch side’s games.

“I watch as a supporter, not an analyst,” said the Manchester United manager. It is why he did not want to face his boyhood club in this season’s Europa League. “It is not nice to have to hurt something you love,” he explained.

Although, some would say, United hurt too few opponents. The analyst in Ten Hag admitted they can lack a potent touch, as displayed at Crystal Palace last weekend. “We are capable of scoring many goals, but it’s a part of the game we have to improve and kill in the box,” he said.

Thus far this season, his United have only been killers in the Barnsley box. They scored seven times against the League One club but have more goals in the Carabao Cup than the Premier League.

In the top flight, they have only outscored four teams. Five games represents a small sample size, but Ten Hag’s reign does not. Under the Dutchman, United have scored 58 and 57 goals in two Premier League campaigns. They were the lowest scorers in the top half last season. Now they have five in five games.

The problems predate Ten Hag’s appointment, but have continued since then. United scored 86 goals in Sir Alex Ferguson’s last Premier League campaign. Since then, they have only once topped 66, and even then with a mere 73 in 2020-21. In contrast, Manchester City have struck at least 80 times in each season under Pep Guardiola, with 94 or more six times and two tallies of over 100.

Saturday’s stalemate at Selhurst Park came with an expected goals of 2.35. “We create a lot of chances,” said Ten Hag. Yet a theme of his tenure has been that United have underperformed their xG in all three seasons under him.

Perhaps it reflects the composition of his squad: United have a killer in the box, but that box is the technical area and Ruud van Nistelrooy is now a 48-year-old assistant manager.

The Dutchman in attack, Joshua Zirkzee, scored on an auspicious debut against Fulham but has been wasteful since then. He has eight shots, an xG of 2.40 and just one goal. Which may not be entirely surprising: even as Zirkzee helped Bologna qualify for the Champions League last season, he only scored 11 goals in Serie A, from 84 shots and with a similar chance-conversion rate. United chose Zirkzee ahead of Jonathan David, who has overperformed his xG in each of the last six seasons for Lille, and Ivan Toney, who overperformed his in three of his last four campaigns for Brentford, from their striking shortlist. It felt like a specialist scorer was not the top priority.

Zirkzee, though, came with the possibility that he could play alongside Rasmus Hojlund and injury has limited the Dane to 29 minutes on the pitch this season. But when he had to wait until Boxing Day for his first league goal last season, the lack of a predatory finisher was an issue. Marcus Rashford seemed to be that figure in 2022-23, with a career-best 30 goals in all competitions; that slipped to just eight in 43 outings last year. Having scored three times in two games, he was then only a substitute at Palace. Ten Hag remains aggrieved at criticism of that decision. “I didn’t understand it,” he said.

Yet Rashford feels pivotal if United are to be prolific. Alejandro Garnacho can be explosive but is not yet clinical. Bruno Fernandes is a shotaholic, but often wayward: he has 18 Premier League goals for Ten Hag, but from 197 shots. Only three of this season’s 17 have been on target, which partly reflects the captain’s willingness to let fly from long range.

Last season, United had one more shot than Newcastle and scored 26 fewer goals. But United had the second-highest average distance per shot, Newcastle the second-lowest. Efforts from outside the box are not always clear-cut chances.

Now, however, Ten Hag is entitled to argue they are making opportunities. Only Aston Villa and Liverpool have created more big chances in the Premier League this season. According to Understat, United have the sixth-highest xG; fbref give them the third highest. Either number indicates a wastefulness.

Because United have scored with only seven percent of their shots. Their chance conversion rate last season was nine percent, the fourth lowest in the division. In 2022-23, it was also nine percent. And if Ten Hag’s biggest buy was one of the worst offenders, with Antony scoring five times from 115 shots, the common denominator is they need a lot of attempts to find the net. It is why they need someone to become the killer Ten Hag wants.