Why Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool reign hints at bleak future for Erik ten Hag at Man Utd

For Erik ten Hag, Liverpool has represented the first high and perhaps the lowest low. His maiden win as Manchester United manager, nine days after the 4-0 shellacking at Brentford, came against Liverpool. So did his heaviest defeat, and United’s record loss in a fixture that dates back to the 19th century: 7-0 at Anfield last March.

Should Ten Hag get his marching orders this summer, the temptation will be to say that it started to unravel against Liverpool: United went there with two defeats in 32 matches and have now been beaten 22 times in little over a year. Should he go, though, there would be a historic first: never have United and Liverpool appointed a new manager in the same year. And probably, given the stature of the clubs, they would be considering some of the same candidates, competing to attract them.

Not if Ten Hag has his way. There is a resident argument at Old Trafford for affording managers time, and Sir Alex Ferguson is proof the road to success can be bumpy: his United finished second only to Kenny Dalglish’s Liverpool in 1988 and dipped to 11th the following season. Ten Hag’s drop from third to sixth may seem small in comparison, but comes in the context of a time when the superclubs’ budget is many times that of the rest of the division.

Yet he may look to the opposing dugout on Sunday to support his case. Jurgen Klopp will leave Liverpool as an iconic figure and one of the most decorated managers in their history, though not, if Ten Hag can prevail this weekend, as a quadruple winner. But he was not an overnight success. Klopp talked at his unveiling of winning a title within four years and it was three-and-a-half after his appointment when he got his first; as it was the Champions League, it was a big one.

That Klopp took over in October makes comparisons inexact, but he came eighth in his first (partial) season in charge. Ten Hag can note some similarities, even if they are superficial. Each had both won league titles and overachieved in the Champions League with clubs in his home country. Each inherited a mess. Each reached two cup finals in his first season in charge; Ten Hag may note that he won one, unlike Klopp. There was a flagship early victory to offer optimism: Ten Hag’s against Liverpool, following two straight defeats, while Klopp’s maiden Premier League victory came at the expense of Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea.

Their early months contained several similarly rousing, and encouraging, triumphs: in 2015-16, Klopp beat Manchester City twice, United in the Europa League and Borussia Dortmund. For Ten Hag’s United, a debut campaign produced Old Trafford wins against Arsenal, Tottenham, City and Barcelona.

And yet their paths may differ there, the common denominators end. Ten Hag may feel he was ahead of Klopp in another respect: he got a top-four finish in his first campaign in charge, whereas the German did not until his first full season, 2016-17. But then it felt an example that Liverpool were on an upward trajectory. They carried on getting results against the best; indeed, they went unbeaten in the mini-league of the Big Six.

They did so in auspicious manner: their high-paced style of play showing Klopp’s gegenpressing beliefs, generating excitement for the crowd and continuing to produce memorable matches. Liverpool’s 2016-17 began with a 4-3 win at Arsenal, still one of the seminal games of the Klopp years.

Liverpool also became more prolific. They had scored 63 league goals in 2015-16. That went up to 78 the following campaign. United got a meagre 58 last season. Now, in Ten Hag’s second year, they are only on course for 53 and being outscored by Luton.

The numbers were revealing of wider factors. Klopp has stamped his imprint on Liverpool’s tactics. Some 19 months after his first match, there is rather more confusion about what Ten Hag is trying to do and how: at their best, his United have prospered with quick attacks, a staple of Kloppball, but there are fewer signs of an overriding philosophy. This season, a double over Aston Villa apart, they have stopped beating top teams.

Nor does their respective records in the transfer market flatter Ten Hag. An inflation in fees may count against him, while Klopp’s mid-season arrival meant his first two summers of buying were in 2016 and 2017. Yet, whereas Ten Hag has spent £400m and has perhaps one meaningful success, in Lisandro Martinez, Klopp’s first summer produced Sadio Mane and Gini Wijnaldum; the following one brought Andy Robertson and Mohamed Salah, four pillars of a team that achieved greatness.

If that partly reflected on Fenway Sports Group, providing the quality of off-field support that Ten Hag may have lacked for his time at United, and the stability behind the scenes rendered the German’s position safe while regime change could endanger the Dutchman’s now, it was easier to trust Klopp with money and back his judgement. He did far more with lesser funds. He had no equivalent of Antony.

At this stage of Klopp’s reign, he still had a team in transition, brilliant in some respects, wildly imperfect in others. There was no guarantee it would lead to Premier League and Champions League glory, but there were ample indications he was the right man. There were clear deficiencies, which would be resolved by the eventual arrivals of Virgil van Dijk and Alisson.

But there was evidence of progress, as well as of a manager with the charisma to carry everyone along with him. Now Ten Hag’s United have regressed alarmingly this season. He is entitled to point out that he finished ahead of Liverpool last season. He may even knock them out of the FA Cup now or derail their title bid next month. But there are too few indications he is Old Trafford's answer to Klopp.