Man City can eclipse Manchester United thanks to Sir Alex Ferguson’s famous habit

The time has passed when Manchester United were the permanent reference point for Manchester City. If they used to be role models or targets, now they can seem more of a salutary warning. But at a point when City are four games from displacing United from the record books, from becoming the first team to become English champions in four successive seasons, the pertinent comparison may not lie with one of Pep Guardiola’s former teams.

Rather than his beloved Barcelona side, his City centurions or last season’s treble winners, there have been times this year when City are more reminiscent of the late-era Sir Alex Ferguson sides. They were United teams who won because they had won in the past, who became champions with a feel of remorseless predictability, but who benefited from what came before then.

Some opponents are intimidated into defeat before kick-off, beaten by the reputation more than the reality, by the memories of more illustrious sides, and if that certainly was not the case with Nottingham Forest on Sunday, it feels that way in games at the Etihad Stadium, just as it used to at Old Trafford. It can make it harder for any challenger, lacking that established fear factor, to depose them.

A 2-0 victory at the City Ground was notable for Kevin de Bruyne’s capacity to unlock defences. It was also an occasion for the solid citizens, Guardiola praising the penalty-box defending of Josko Gvardiol, Nathan Ake and Manuel Akanji. If each is an illustration that City have more physicality than some of the diminutive teams Guardiola has fielded in the past, a reliance on powerful defenders is one way that the class of 2023-24 looks more prosaic than some of their predecessors.

There have been fewer footballing masterclasses in midfield, in part because City have had fewer high-grade technical talents in the centre of the pitch, in part due to departures and injuries. A 29-pass move for their second goal in Nottingham was out of keeping with their performance: that Guardiola had to bring on Mateo Kovacic for Jeremy Doku at half-time was an indication City had insufficient stability in possession and underlined that they feel more reliant on the manager to find solutions.

And yet the statistics suggest this City side is one of England’s greatest ever. They are just the fourth to go 30 games unbeaten in all competitions: Forest produced the first, under Brian Clough, Ferguson’s United the other two. In the Premier League, City are undefeated in 19 matches, winning 15. It is a similar run to United’s spell of 16 victories in 18 in 2012-13, the Scot's last season. His penultimate title came in 2010-11 after they started the campaign without losing any of their opening 24 league fixtures. In each case, the achievement came in the results: neither is now remembered as one of Ferguson’s truly outstanding sides.

But winning can be a habit, an art and a science. It is something that, especially with the right manager, can continue when the personnel change. Some of those switches are because of injury. The formula for perpetual possession in midfield at the end of last season was based around six players. Of those, Jack Grealish has started 29 percent of their league games this season, De Bruyne 32 percent, John Stones 35 percent; for other reasons, Ilkay Gundogan none. If Stones can feel irreplaceable, given how hard it is to field a defender who can offer his assurance anywhere in the midfield, it leaves only Rodri and Bernardo Silva of those six as regulars. Even then, the Portuguese, like Erling Haaland, Ruben Dias and Kyle Walker, has not been in the starting 11 for around a quarter of league games. Even the best footballing goalkeeper, Ederson, is injured again.

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Meanwhile, the footballer with the most minutes in the Premier League for City this season is Julian Alvarez, who isn’t in City’s strongest side and yet is in virtually every side. The 11 who started the second half against Forest – Stefan Ortega; Walker, Akanji, Ake, Gvardiol; Kovacic, Rodri; Silva, De Bruyne, Grealish; Alvarez – contains half a great team, but also a sprinkling of stand-ins.

Yet they have only lost when Rodri has been missing. They plough on. Winning in style is Guardiola’s preference. Winning with some adversity, because of injury and fatigue and departures, is a different kind of feat. Winning under pressure is a trait many another can envy and City have often been playing after Arsenal; they have barely been top since October but are the team the leaders just can’t shake off, the unwanted presence on their shoulder.

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They may finish the season undefeated in 36 – albeit with a penalty shootout loss – with a double. The winning feeling can be natural and normal for them, a weekly ritual, regardless of who plays or how they play. It was Ferguson’s way. It has come to be Guardiola’s, too.