Man City, Arsenal and the key change to modern-day Premier League title fights

Fresh from a midweek 0-0 draw apiece comes a clash of two clubs whose last meeting finished goalless. It wasn’t always the case when Manchester City faced Arsenal. The problem for the Londoners, however, was that Pep Guardiola’s team scored the vast majority of the goals. Two seasons ago, matches that shaped the title race finished 3-0 and 4-1 to City. Last season, however, matches billed as title deciders ended 1-0 to Arsenal and 0-0. City nevertheless retained their crown.

But if Jurgen Klopp’s departure from Liverpool leaves Mikel Arteta entrenched as Guardiola’s biggest remaining rival, there may have been a transformation in the showpiece occasions. They have been stripped of some of the excitement. Klopp’s duel with Guardiola was compelling in part because it contained so many goals: they were more likely to draw 2-2 than 0-0 and spectacular scorelines included 5-0, 4-0, 4-1, 4-3 and 3-2. Some came with Arteta by Guardiola’s side; now they are in neighbouring dugouts and opposing camps. Allies turned adversaries, the purists have started to show a puritanical streak.

Before March’s stalemate, Arsenal had conceded 19 times in their previous six league trips to the Etihad. Yet last season, City scored 96 goals in the Premier League, but none against Arsenal. They had 264 shots on target but just two against Arsenal: one at home, one away. And those both came from defenders: Josko Gvardiol at the Emirates Stadium, and Nathan Ake at the Etihad. Even the lone goal City managed against Arsenal in the campaign came from a player who then left the club, with Cole Palmer their Community Shield scorer.

And so to a reunion that Guardiola thinks might be something of a repeat. Will it be like last season’s double bill, starved of incident, dominated by defenders? “Similar,” he suggested. “They have been tight games in the last year.” Which reflects the defensive revolution Arteta has brought to Arsenal: they let in 48 league goals in 2021-22, but just 29 last season.

In five games in all competitions in the current campaign, Arsenal have conceded just once, and even then after they were reduced to 10 men.

“Everyone knows they grew up, his team year by year,” reflected Guardiola. “They do many good things: high pressing, defending deep, in transitions. They are a complete team. That's why they have been our biggest rivals in the last two seasons. Every season they get stronger – depth of squad, adding more players with top quality. They have been close but still we are strong.”

Now there is a test both of City’s strength and of Guardiola’s intellectual and tactical capacity to find answers to problems. Yet there are obstacles. Two seasons ago, Kevin De Bruyne unlocked Arsenal twice with the brilliance of a virtuoso but he may miss a rematch with a groin problem. Erling Haaland was expertly policed by Alessandro Bastoni and crowded out by Internazionale on Wednesday. William Saliba and Arsenal present a similarly fierce challenge. They did last season.

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“To score goals, you can score from many different aspects,” mused Guardiola. “Setpieces is not easy because they are taller than us. In transitions, their [players running] backwards are quicker than our transitions offensively. When we are able to set them back, they are so strong defensively and they accumulate a lot of players. They go to the strikers, they go to the holding midfielders. The gaps between the spaces… we saw against Inter, they defend the space. They have incredible runners in the channels, inside, being defensive with the people in the middle.

“Saliba and Gabriel are incredible focused with Erling all the time. It’s not one against one, it is always two against one or three against one. That’s why it’s difficult to attack them. In 2024, they didn’t lose away [in the league], they drew one game against us and they won the others. It’s not just one game or two games, there are many games where they are solid and consistent. They didn’t concede goals and the opponents didn’t create much options. That’s why I have to read well the way we have to do it.”

If Arteta has turned Arsenal into arguably the outstanding defensive side in Europe, perhaps it is a reaction to Guardiola’s City. If they shared ideas when together, there have been similar evolutions when apart.

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Oleksandr Zinchenko had seemed a classic Guardiola full-back, a converted midfielder who Arteta then signed. Yet both managers now show a fondness for playing strapping central defenders as full-backs: Gvardiol is likely to take Zinchenko’s old berth as City’s left-back while Ben White is stationed on the right of the Arsenal defence.

Guardiola has been a trendsetter in many a respect. His Barcelona were so influential in part because they came after some of the defining games of the Noughties were notable for the lack of goals. Jose Mourinho and Rafa Benitez could trade 0-0s and 1-0s. Two decades on, clean sheets feel as fashionable as they have ever been.

If Guardiola against Arteta was supposed to be about the style, now it is about the solidity.