What do Wales and the Republic of Ireland have to do to reach the 2018 World Cup play-offs?
Calculators at the ready. It could be a night of mathematical gymnastics in Cardiff
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Your support makes all the difference.Wales and the Republic of Ireland face each other at the Cardiff City Stadium on Monday night in Group D decider to make the 2018 World Cup play-offs.
As if the idea of a play-off for a play-off was not confusing enough, there are a number of tricky permutations, particularly for Wales if it ends in a draw.
Here, in the simplest terms possible, is what could happen in Cardiff.
If Wales win…
Wales are assured of a place in the play-offs along with the other eight best runners-up if they win, with the likelihood being that they would be seeded for the play-off draw too.
If Serbia fail to beat Georgia at home, three points would be enough to see Chris Coleman’s side top Group D and qualify for next summer’s tournament in Russia automatically.
If it is a draw…
This is where it gets confusing, so calculators at the ready.
A draw will ensure that Wales finish at least second in Group D but because only eight of the nine group runners-up can take a place in the play-offs, it may not be enough to progress.
If Wales draw and Croatia or Ukraine win in their Group I head-to-head on Monday night, Wales will most likely be the ‘worst’ runners-up across all nine qualifying groups and would therefore not qualify for one of the eight play-off spots.
In that scenario, the only thing that could save Wales would be an unlikely sequence of Group H results, with Gibraltar avoiding defeat against Greece and Bosnia-Herzegovina becoming the ‘worst’ runners-up by winning away in Estonia.
If Croatia also draw and score one more goal than Wales, the two teams will have identical records for points, goal difference and goals scored.
The last play-off spot would then be decided by ‘fairplay’ points. As things stands, Wales are four points worse off than Croatia in the disciplinary rankings.
If Wales and Croatia finish level on fairplay points, the last play-off spot will be decided by ‘the drawing of lots’.
If the Republic of Ireland win…
For Ireland, the situation is mercifully simple: O’Neill’s men have to win to reach the play-offs. If they do not, they cannot progress.
Unlike Wales, Ireland are not in danger of finishing as the 'worst' runner-up. Three points would give them a runners-up mini-league total of 13 – one more than Slovakia.
Additional reporting by PA
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