Prospects are bleak for the home side

Six host nations have won the World Cup, two have been runners up, three have lost in the semi-finals, four have lost in the quarter-finals and three have gone out in either the second round or the second group phase.

The fear is that South Africa could be the first hosts to go out in the first round. The Fifa world rankings are not necessarily the most accurate guide to ability, but it is a fairly safe bet that the team ranked 72nd in the world will not end up as winners.

With television rights, sponsorship and advertising outstripping gate receipts as a source of income, that may not matter as much as it used to – former Argentina captain Antonio Rattin remains convinced his side lost the 1966 World Cup quarter-final to England because of a conspiracy to ensure the hosts reached at least the semi-finals to maintain ticket sales – but, as anybody who was in South Korea and Japan in 2002 will confirm, it is still better for the atmosphere to keep the hosts involved.

That South Africa failed to qualify even for next January's 16-team African Cup of Nations suggests their prospects are bleak, but there are perhaps some glimmers of hope – on the pitch at least. Five friendlies this year have brought far from disgraceful defeats to Portugal and Chile, and narrow victories over the improving Zambia, Norway and Poland.

The winner against the Poles was scored by Thembinkosi Fanteni, a surprise recall to the side at the expense of Benni McCarthy. The Blackburn Rovers striker was left out of the squad for the Confederations Cup, seemingly paying the price for his lack of commitment to the national team in the past. Devotion and passion have suddenly become the watchwords of South Africa's Brazilian coach Joel Santana.

It was not, it should be said, a full-strength Poland side – and even their regulars have struggled in World Cup qualifying – but there were other encouraging signs. Matthew Booth and Aaron Mokoena, who is set to leave Blackburn for Portsmouth next month, seem to be developing an understanding at the back, while the central midfield partnership of Everton's Steven Pienaar and Teko Modise shows promise, even if there are concerns that it may prove lightweight against more robust opposition.

But even as optimism begins to flicker on the playing side, any sense of well-being has been overwhelmed by familiar wrangling over money. Players have denied threatening to strike but there was certainly militancy in the air as they demanded a collective bonus of up to £2.5m for the Confederations Cup. In the end, with public opinion very evidently against them, they accepted a far reduced offer of £6,800 per player for each game won in the group stage, £11,300 for winning a semi-final, and £18,900 for winning the tournament.

"The mood is good," said the forward Katlego Mashego. "The strike is not an issue." Maybe not, but after a similar dispute in the build-up to the African Cup of Nations in 2006, South Africa lost every game and were eliminated after the group stage. A repeat in either the Confederations Cup or the main event next summer will be good for no-one.