Giggs wary of excessive hope

The decisions of Rudi Glockner, the hand of Joe Jordan, the crossbar that was struck by Paul Bodin's penalty at Cardiff Arms Park, the bottles which showered the pitch at Ninian Park; all are reminders that in Welsh football the final furlong is often the most painful.

Five points clear at the top of Group Nine with five games to go, the first at home to the brave but rudderless footballers of Azerbaijan, Wales would need a dramatic failure of nerve not to qualify for the European Championship. History suggests they are capable of it.

Ryan Giggs was standing on the edge of the box when Paul Bodin's penalty, which ought to have given Wales the victory they needed against Romania to reach the 1994 World Cup finals, struck the bar. Like so many who were at the Arms Park then or were at Anfield to see Jordan handle the ball in the Welsh area and, astonishingly, win the penalty which sent Scotland, rather than Wales, through to the 1978 finals, he will not be celebrating until the mathematics are certain.

And it is something Giggs desperately desires. On the six-hour flight from Baku to Cardiff, he watched Alistair McGowan spend half an hour satirising the life of his Manchester United team-mate David Beckham, who has often used Welsh football as the subject of his own dressing-room jokes at Old Trafford. They are unlikely to be repeated in the near future, and the envy Giggs feels when the bulk of United's squad disappear to summer tournaments may soon be expunged.

"There has been a feeling of emptiness inside caused by Wales never having made a major finals during my time," he said after the first group victory in Helsinki. As he stood in the small hours of Thursday morning by the baggage carousel at Cardiff Airport after Wales's third successive win, the dream appeared closer than at any time since that night nine Novembers ago. "Playing for Manchester United has given me the opportunity to play in the Champions' League, but I don't think I've been given the recognition I would have received if I'd played in a World Cup finals."

While John Hartson talked of what impact the Welsh fans might have in Portugal, how it would be a "disaster" if Wales did not finish first and a "tragedy" if they failed to make it at all, Giggs, a very old head on 28-year-old shoulders, was considerably more reticentas he waited for his luggage.

"Until we actually get to Portugal, I'm not even going to think about the European Championship. Past experience has told me that anything could happen. I've seen it go wrong before, when we were trying to qualify for the 1994 World Cup. Everyone thought we were going to do it but we lost to Romania at home; they went through and we didn't."

Giggs added that Wales's 100 per cent record meant they could "afford the odd bad performance or two", although many are less certain. Wales is the talented amateur leading the Open on the final day; the holes are the same, the head is not. Hartson hinted strongly that Wales could not afford to finish second and condemn themselves to the play-offs, a formula which favours battle-hardened teams. In the play-offs for Euro 2000, only one tie went to the novices, when Slovenia beat Ukraine 3-2 on aggregate.

"Yugoslavia look the most dangerous side for us because of the result they got in Italy [a 1-1 draw in Naples] and because they have a game in hand," he reflected. The Welsh have long been wary of the Yugoslavs, whom they have never beaten. At Ninian Park in 1976, they came very close in the European Championship quarter-finals, remembered bitterly for John Toshack's disallowed goal, Terry Yorath's missed penalty and the decisions of the East German referee, Glockner, which sparked a riot.

The best insurance against a repetition is the organisation which their manager, Mark Hughes, admits has taken the thick end of two years to instil into his team. A side deprived of Mark Pembridge, Robbie Savage and Craig Bellamy might well have failed in Azerbaijan. Hughes confessed to being more worried about that match than he was before last month's 2-1 victory over Italy. Welsh supporters were anxious enough to bombard Sir Bobby Robson with offensive faxes for refusing to release the unfit Bellamy, and some took a banner to Baku excoriating Steve Bruce, who forced Savage to play for Birmingham last Sunday and then saw him injured.

It is not a new battle for Welsh football. In 1975 the Liverpool manager, Bob Paisley, threatened to drop Toshack if he played in a European Championship qualifier against Hungary.

Toshack not only defied Paisley, he played in the first visiting team ever to win in the Nep Stadium, a moment he described as the most satisfying of his international career. Overcoming clubs to win for your country is something Hughes now knows all about.