Fifa President election: Can Sheikh Salman shake up corrupt Fifa?

The race to the White House is a but a sideshow, the UK’s fight for freedom from the EU a mere adjunct. The poll that really matters takes place on Friday in Zurich – the vote to become leader of the governing body of the world’s most popular sport.

The battle to be Fifa’s next president is going into extra-time. Few want to contemplate the need for penalties or, God forbid, a replay.

After a decade of scandal, football’s governing body is on the brink of a brave new world – or the edge of a fatal precipice depending on your take on the five candidates to succeed Sepp Blatter.

The favourite, Sheikh Salman Bin Ibrahim Al-Khalifa, is current Fifa vice-president and president of the influential Asian confederation. Sheikh Salman, a member of Bahrain’s ruling family, forced to fend off accusations about involvement in human-rights abuses, is expected to get nearly all Asia’s 46 votes and most of Africa’s 54.

His nearest rival is Gianni Infantino, general secretary of Uefa, European football’s governing body, who is expected to get the backing of most of the continent’s 53 votes. The Football Association publicly added their support last week.

The Swiss Infantino has added impetus to his campaign by announcing endorsements from more than a dozen South and Central American nations as well as a handful from the Caribbean.

In the election’s first round, a candidate needs a two-thirds majority of the 209 votes to win; a simple majority is needed after that. Before that happens Fifa must decide whether two countries, Kuwait and Indonesia, who are currently suspended following accusations of political interference, will be permitted to vote.

There are three other candidates in the race: former French diplomat and Fifa official Jerome Champagne, South African mining tycoon Tokyo Sexuale and Prince Ali of Jordan.

Champagne announced he would stand against Blatter in 2015 but was forced to withdraw after failing to attract sufficient support. Sexwale is struggling to attract any support, including in his own African backyard while the South African FA are expected to support Sheikh Salman.

Prince Ali is the wild card. Not thought to have enough support to reach the second round, his campaign has nevertheless enjoyed a sympathetic hearing. There is a strong and growing consensus that corruption-plagued Fifa is incapable of internal reform. Independent governance experts, academics, government authorities, as well as players, fans and officials within Fifa have all called for independent oversight of the reform process. Prince Ali is the only presidential candidate who has embraced this proposal.

For many observers the election will determine Fifa’s true appetite for reform. Dogged by allegations of widespread corruption and criminal investigations which have seen more than half of its former governing body arrested and charged, the ongoing US and Swiss investigations have exposed some of the rot that has pervaded Fifa’s senior echelons and many of the continental federations. Further arrests this week are not out of the question.

Fifa has already embraced a degree of reform. On the agenda next week are measures which include transparency in salaries, more executive spots for women, background checks for candidates, and 12-year term limits for top officials.

Such measures are likely to be adopted, but therein lies the importance of the choice of a new president: he will set the tone of reform. Many believe that Sheikh Salman or Gianni Infantino are effectively “continuity Blatter” candidates who will simply adopt, albeit with important tweaks, the same patronage system perfected and orchestrated by Blatter and his acolytes. Prince Ali is widely regarded as the only candidate who holds out the promise of more fundamental reform.