Championship play-offs: Fulham and Aston Villa go in as favourites, but don’t be surprised if neither make Wembley
Scott Minto's EFL column: Middlesbrough and Derby County have the tools to cause a surprise in what promises to be a manic pair of semi-finals
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What a couple of great play-off semi-finals we have in store. If a neutral could have handpicked any of the sides from the Championship to be here at this stage, then you wouldn't be surprised if they'd have picked these four. The biggest spenders last summer and a team that was in the Premier League last season, Middlesbrough, against arguably the biggest club in the division, Aston Villa. In the other semi-final, the team that seem to implode annually at this point of the season, but with the division’s top scorer, Derby County, against the best passing side, Fulham. Each has their reasons as to why they believe they will go up. But each has their weaknesses.
Fulham are the most interesting one. They are the best team of the four. They play the best football, finished third and went on that fantastic 23 match unbeaten run, winning 18, before defeat to Birmingham. The record books will say that had beaten Birmingham, they would have grabbed that second automatic promotion place due to Cardiff drawing against Reading. I believe Cardiff would have stepped it up against Reading if they had needed to, but with Fulham conceding two goals in the first half, they didn't have to. It's all hypothetical, but the point is what do Fulham believe? Do they believe they blew it? Did they choke at the final game, the one that really mattered? If so, how will they perform in the cauldron of the play-offs?
Their play-off record is as bad as it gets, not one win ever since the format was introduced, although I'm not one for looking too far back when it comes to stats. But they were the form team coming into them last season and they didn't even score a goal, let alone win either leg against Reading. How are they mentally coming into this? Buoyant after one defeat in 24 with 18 victories, or very low after missing out on automatic promotion?
A month ago I would have put them to beat Derby, and easily. At the moment, not knowing how their mindset is, plus Derby looking like they are now inspired and not destroyed by their fans after scoring seven goals in the last two home games, this looks a lot closer.
In the other semi-final it’s just as close. Steve Bruce has done a great job dealing with all the pressure that comes with being manager of the club with the highest expectation in the Championship. Aston Villa also finished seven points above Middlesbrough. They have so many match winners that can change a game in any moment but they undoubtedly come into their semi-final with the biggest amount of pressure of the four. That can weigh heavily at any time but especially in the play-offs.
I've thought for some time that Middlesbrough were the ones to watch out for. Tony Pulis has got them back to basics. Players have gone, the defence is more solid and in the final third they have lots of goals in them with Britt Assombolonga and Patrick Bamford. The one player who Villa have to keep quiet and could well be the star of the play-offs is Adama Traore. Pace, power, two-footed… on his day he's unplayable.
From the outside looking in, you might think it'll be a Fulham-Villa final. That may well happen. But I've got a sneaky suspicion it'll be Derby and Middlesbrough to compete in the world's richest game, worth at least £170m.
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