Everton vs Newcastle predictions: Newcastle to come unstuck against the Toffees

Everton go on search of only their second league win of the season in Saturday’s late kick-off, when Eddie Howe takes his Newcastle United side to Goodison Park (5.30pm, Sky Sports Main Event).

The Toffees finally secured their first win last weekend, coming from behind to beat Crystal Palace 2-1 thanks to two goals from Dwight McNeil.

This turn of events came after they took the lead in each of their previous four matches, only to draw two and lose twice in those scenarios. Against both Bournemouth and Aston Villa, they went 2-0 only to lose both games 3-2, so the fact they went behind to Palace was a blessing in disguise.

It has been a difficult season so far for Sean Dyche’s side who opened their campaign with a 3-0 home defeat to Brighton and a 4-0 drubbing at Tottenham and their form on the pitch has no doubt been affected by speculation off it amid continued talk of a takeover.

Things seem to be moving in the right direction, off the pitch, as far as the ownership goes and Dyche would love to get into some sort of form on it.

Everton enter their latest fixture as home underdogs on betting sites and on paper you can understand why given Newcastle’s start to the season.

The Magpies go into the game seventh in the Premier League table with 11 points, which is their best tally at this stage of a top-flight season since 2011-12 when they were one point better off. It’s also Howe’s best start to a league season since 2010-11 in League One when Bournemouth also had 11 points at the same stage.

The north east side were beaten in their last league away game though, going down 3-1 at Fulham, and with first-choice strikers Callum Wilson and Alexander Isak absent through injury, they may be worth opposing in the match market on football betting sites.

The Toffees took four points from games between the two sides last season, securing a 3-0 win at Goodison, with goals from McNeil, Abdoulaye Doucoure and Beto before securing a 1-1 draw at St James’ Park, when a Dominic Calvert-Lewin penalty two minutes from time cancelled out Isak’s early opener.

Everton have actually lost just three of their last 20 Premier League home games against Newcastle, winning 12 and drawing the other five but two of those defeats have come in their last four meetings.

Despite their difficult start to the season, Everton have won six of their last eight Premier League matches at home, losing the other two but since the first game in this run on April 6, the Toffees have won more home points than any other Premier League side with 18.

While the Merseysiders have been the kings of dropping points from winning positions of late, only Aston Villa and Manchester City (7) have picked up more points from losing positions in the Premier League this season than Newcastle (5).

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The Magpies have also only lost two of their last seven games when conceding first, winning two and drawing three which is a huge turnaround from their previous 13 games when they lost after going behind.

With Isak set to be missing again for the visitors, we expect them to struggle in front of goal. They scored a penalty against Manchester City last weekend to earn a draw and only a Fabian Schar spot kick was the difference as they overcame League 2 side AFC Wimbledon in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday.

They will likely be relying on Anthony Gordon to lead the line again and despite being involved in 13 goals in 23 league appearances for Newcastle this year (seven goals, six assists) he has just one goal in his last 15 games at Goodison, not a great statistic considering he was playing for Everton in 13 of those!

With Everton getting Jarrad Branthwaite back from injury, they should prove a tougher unit to break down and the value may lie with the home side when assessing the match odds on betting apps.

Several underlying metrics suggest Newcastle are a little fortunate to have as many points on the board as they do and when it comes to things like expected goals against and big chances created, these two aren’t that far apart.

Newcastle goalkeeper Nick Pope has made more saves per game than his England counterpart Jordan Pickford this season and there’s enough data to push us towards backing Everton on Premier League betting sites.

Everton vs Newcastle prediction: Everton to win 2-1 - 12/1 Bet365

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